Indian stock market: The Indian stock market wrapped up the holiday-shortened week on a firm footing, registering gains in three of the four trading sessions.
Despite persistent global uncertainties, the benchmark reclaimed and sustained levels above the crucial 24,000 mark, highlighting the market’s resilience. On a weekly basis, the Sensex advanced 0.39% to settle at 77,100.47, while the Nifty gained 0.18% to close at 24,056.
The sharp decline in crude oil prices proved to be a major positive trigger for domestic equities. As tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz normalized and geopolitical tensions in West Asia subsided, Brent crude retreated to levels seen before the conflict. The fall helped ease concerns over imported inflation, India’s current account deficit, and the impact of higher input costs on corporate margins.
Stock market outlook for next week
According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, Looking ahead, global cues will be shaped by US PCE data, followed by non-farm payrolls and unemployment figures, which will influence Fed rate expectations and overall risk appetite.
“Domestically, industrial production data and June PMI readings will provide early signals ahead of Q1 earnings season. Sustained softness in crude prices remains a clear macro positive, improving inflation, fiscal, and current account dynamics while providing the RBI with greater policy flexibility. As the results season unfolds in the coming weeks, management commentary on demand visibility, margins, and order flows will serve as key indicators for market direction. A prudent yet optimistic stance is warranted, with a focus on selectively building positions in fundamentally strong companies that have seen recent corrections without any meaningful deterioration in their underlying outlook,” Nair said.
Stock market trading strategy
Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking, believes that participants should continue to focus on fundamentally strong companies within healthy balance sheets, robust earnings visibility, and improving relative strength. Large-cap financials, domestic cyclicals, and sectors that stand to benefit from lower energy costs remain well placed.
“While the broader trend remains constructive, traders should avoid excessive leverage and maintain disciplined risk management. Sustained FII participation, continued moderation in crude oil prices, and stability in global markets will be critical for determining the strength and durability of the next leg of the market rally,” said Mishra.
Key technical levels to watch out for next week –
Sensex
On the Sensex outlook, Ponmudi R, CEO – Enrich Money, said that the continues to trade with a constructive bias after extending its recovery from recent lows. From a technical perspective, the 77,500–77,700 region remains the immediate resistance area. A sustained move above this level could reinforce bullish momentum and pave the way for an advance towards the 78,000–79,000 region.
“On the downside, the 77,000–76,900 region is expected to provide immediate support. Holding above this zone will be essential to preserve the prevailing recovery structure. However, a decisive break below these levels could trigger profit booking and drag the index towards the 76,200–76,000 support region. Overall, the technical outlook remains constructively positive, although sustained follow-through buying will be required to confirm the continuation of the ongoing recovery trend,” Ponmudi said.
Nifty 50
On the Nifty 50 outlook, Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst at Choice Broking said that the Nifty index started the week on a mildly positive note, opening 93.50 points higher. However, profit booking emerged during the initial part of the week, dragging the index to its weekly low of 23,784.95.
Tailor further noted that on the upside, immediate resistance levels are placed at 24,400 and 24,500. A sustained move above these levels could trigger fresh buying momentum and strengthen the ongoing recovery. On the downside, support is seen at 23,900 and 23,800.
“A breakdown below the 23,800 zone may invite renewed selling pressure and weaken the current technical structure. Considering the prevailing setup, traders are advised to maintain a stock-specific approach while following strict risk management amid continued market consolidation,” he added.
Bank Nifty
Meanwhile, on the Bank Nifty outlook, Tailor said that the index started the week on a positive note, opening at 57,906.90, up by 221.15 points from the previous week’s close. Despite the positive opening, the index witnessed mild profit booking during the initial sessions, dragging it to a weekly low of 57,074.90. However, the decline remained short-lived as strong buying interest emerged from lower levels, indicating continued accumulation in banking stocks.
Tailor further highlighted that Bank Nifty formed a Doji-like candlestick on the weekly chart, reflecting temporary indecision after the recent rally. However, the index has successfully sustained above the previous week’s closing level, indicating that the broader bullish structure remains intact.
“Bank Nifty continues to trade above its 20, 50, 100 and 200-week EMA, highlighting strong underlying trend strength and continued institutional participation. The Weekly RSI has improved to 57.33, indicating strengthening momentum and improving buying interest while remaining comfortably above the neutral 50 level. Immediate support is placed in the 57,500–57,400 zone, while resistance is seen at 58,900 and 59,000. A sustained move above the resistance zone could extend the ongoing uptrend in the coming weeks,” he added.
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