The trajectory of the southwest monsoon has been uneven so far, with rainfall standing 13% below the long period average (LPA) as of 16 Aug 2026. While the cumulative deficit narrowed sharply from 39.8% at the end of June, this overall improvement masks an increasingly erratic pattern marked by severe extremes.
Wide fluctuations
June and July saw monsoon activity swing wildly between prolonged dry spells and brief bursts of heavy downpours. Following a patchy start—where only around 20% of the country received normal rainfall in any given week of June– July brought a partial revival.
However, this recovery was far from a broad-based recovery: only about 20% of the nation saw normal rainfall during the first two weeks of July. That figure dropped to 14% for the week ending 15 July, rose to 37% by 22 July, and slipped back to 29% in the final week.
Ultimately, July’s overall gains were driven by short, intense events rather than sustained precipitation. In fact, at least 63% of India’s geographical area experienced either deficient or excess rainfall every week of the month.
While the seasonal deficit shrank to nearly 13% by late July, momentum stalled in August. In the first two weeks of the month, nearly 56% of the country faced extreme monsoon conditions without further narrowing the gap.
Regional disparity
Overall this season, 58% of the states have received normal rainfall, while 35% are staring at a deficit while the rest 7% are facing excess or large excess rainfall. Rainfall remained weak across the eastern and north-eastern regions which are largely facing a deficit. It has mostly bypassed the eastern -growing belts of Bihar and Jharkhand where the cumulative deviation from normal stands at -41% and -21%, respectively. Rainfall also remained weak across much of the southern peninsula while the north western and central regions so far have witnessed a normal precipitation.
Despite this uneven distribution, some meteorological sub-divisions saw sharp turnaround in their cumulative rainfall position: Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha , Gujarat Region and Madhya Maharashtra swung from deficient at the end of June to excess by mid August.
Gangetic West Bengal moved from a cumulative rainfall deficit of 13.4% at the end of June to an excess of 4% by 16 August. Gujarat Region moved from a deficit of 72.3% to an excess of 18.5% while Madhya Maharashtra moved from a deficit of 55.7% to an excess of 18%. Odisha recorded one of the sharpest recoveries, moving from a deficit of 47.3% to an excess of 27%.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) moderate El Niño conditions currently prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperature anomalies remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. These conditions are expected to strengthen further during the southwest Monsoon season. The forecast also suggests that the regional disparities in rainfall are likely to persist during the rest of the southwest monsoon season.