From the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) minutes signalling hawkish caution even as rates stayed on hold, to India’s exports finding strong footing across key markets in July, Skymet sharply revising down its monsoon forecast and raising drought odds, rural women driving a jump in labour force participation, and foreign portfolio investors returning to Indian equities in force—here are this week’s news in numbers.
Hawkish signal
The latest RBI minutes strike a hawkish tone, with policymakers focused on the risk that inflation could remain elevated even as the repo rate was kept unchanged at 5.25% and the stance remained neutral at the August meeting. Inflation pressures have not become broad-based. Monetary policy committee (MPC) member Ram Singh noted that 69% of the weighted CPI basket recorded inflation of 4% or less in June, but also cautioned that the distribution was shifting towards higher inflation. The governor and other members also warned that food and fuel shocks could trigger second-round effects. A Mint analysis shows that 28% of CPI items recorded inflation above 4% in July, slightly lower than 29% in June but higher than 18% in January 2026.
Trade momentum
India’s exports grew across several key markets in July 2026, according to preliminary trade data released by the commerce ministry. The US remained India’s largest export destination, accounting for 20.4% of overall exports, while shipments rose nearly 13% from a year earlier. Exports to the US reached their highest level since March 2025, before tariffs took effect. Four other countries among the top 10 destinations recorded strong double-digit growth. Exports to Singapore jumped 83.7% year-on-year, followed by Malaysia at 73%, Japan at 65.3% and China at 64.6%. The top 10 markets accounted for over half of overall exports. These figures, however, may need to be read with caution as rising prices of commodities may have inflated the shipment values.
Drought concerns
Private weather agency Skymet has turned more pessimistic on the 2026 monsoon as the season has progressed. In April, the weather agency had forecast rainfall at 94% of the long-period average (LPA), with a 70% chance of below-normal or drought conditions. By August, the agency revised their forecast to 85% of LPA and raised the probability of drought to 70%, up from 30%, citing a strengthening El Niño and uncertainty over a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Rainfall was already 13% below LPA between June and July, and Skymet expects August and September to remain deficient. A weaker monsoon could hurt kharif crop yields, reduce rural incomes and tighten water availability, while also pushing up food prices in the coming months.
Numbers talk
5.4%: Y-o-y growth in India’s eight core industries in July, easing from June’s 6%. Iron ore, cement and electricity led the gains, while output of natural gas, crude oil, and fertilizers contracted.
98%: The shortfall from the Centre’s target for forest cover under the Green India Mission between FY16 and FY25, with just 0.03 million hectares added against a target of 1.4 million hectares, according to a new report by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India.
₹7,877 crore: The investment approved for 31 electronics component projects under the first tranche of the IT ministry’s ₹40,000-crore Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme, covering mobile enclosures, copper coils, rare-earth magnets and other components.
₹13,041 crore: The investment approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs for four railway track-quadrupling projects on the Howrah-Chennai network and a highway project in Bihar. The four projects will expand the existing rail network to about 410 kilometres.
₹10,000 crore: The planned investment to develop more than a dozen new national waterways over five to 10 years, expanding India’s operational network and creating commercially viable cargo and passenger corridors.
Rural surge
India’s labour force participation rate (LFPR) among people aged 15 years and above rose sharply in July, led by rural women, according to the latest Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) monthly data released by the statistics ministry. Rural female LFPR jumped 220 basis points to 38.8% in July 2026 from June. It was also up from 36.9% a year earlier. Urban female LFPR, in contrast, also rose, albeit by a smaller 50 basis points from June to 25.3% in July. Though, it remained below the 25.8% level seen in the same month last year. Male LFPR was broadly stable, rising 40 basis points in rural areas to 78.3%, while urban male LFPR edged down 10 basis points to 75.2%.
FPI rebound
Foreign portfolio investors’ (FPI) return to Indian equities gathered pace in July, extending the recovery that began in June after a prolonged sell-off. The consumer services sector attracted the strongest inflows of $1.06 billion in July, followed by healthcare at $0.81 billion and consumer durables at $0.77 billion. The healthcare sector, particularly, saw a sharp turnaround after nearly 15 months of consecutive net outflows, according to a Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) analysis.
Metals and mining attracted another $0.51 billion. On the other hand, capital goods recorded the largest net outflow at $0.66 billion, followed by telecommunications at $0.60 billion and automobiles and auto components at $0.47 billion.