Why Oil India shares are rising: Record profit, analysts bullish

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Shares of were trading sharply higher on Monday morning, rising ₹11.85 or 2.68 per cent to ₹454.65 as of 10.38 am, after the state-owned explorer posted its highest-ever standalone profit on Friday. The stock opened at ₹450, touched an intraday high of ₹462.45, and has seen traded volume of 41.01 lakh shares worth ₹186.55 crore in early trade. Sell orders outpace buy orders with 56.77 per cent of total order quantity on the sell side, suggesting some profit-booking even as the broader move remains upward. The stock currently trades well below its 52-week high of ₹531 hit in May 2026.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services maintained a Neutral rating with a current market price of ₹441 in its results flash note dated August 8, while acknowledging the operational beat. The brokerage noted revenue came in 9 per cent above its estimate at ₹79.6 billion, with oil realisation of $98.7/bbl running 4 per cent ahead of its USD 95.2/bbl forecast. It flagged that gas sales volumes were 11 per cent below estimate at 0.62 bcm.

JM Financial was more bullish, reiterating a Buy with a revised target price of ₹560, raised from ₹550. Analyst Dayanand Mittal cited standalone EBITDA before dry-well write-offs of ₹43.4 billion, beating JM’s own estimate of ₹32.6 billion and street consensus of ₹37.1 billion. The firm raised its FY27 PAT estimate by 8 per cent and noted Oil India is trading at 6.9x FY28 consolidated earnings, pricing in crude realisation of only USD 55–60/bbl against current levels closer to USD 99/bbl. JM described it as a 15–20 per cent EPS compounding story over three to five years, driven by NRL’s refinery expansion from 3 to 9 mmtpa and crude output growth.

Oil India on Friday reported standalone profit after tax of ₹2,870 crore for Q1 FY27, up 2.5 times year-on-year, from ₹813 crore in Q1 FY26. Consolidated PAT came in at ₹4,027 crore, up 97 per cent YoY. Crude oil output rose 11 per cent to 0.950 MMT, and subsidiary Numaligarh Refinery Ltd posted 167 per cent PAT growth to ₹1,305 crore, with a gross refining margin of$35.95/bbl.

At the current price, Oil India’s market capitalisation stands at approximately ₹73,929 crore, with a trailing P/E of 7.56x.

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