Markets extended their losing streak into a third straight session on Thursday, with investors caught in a familiar bind, a benign domestic inflation print on one hand, and a near-blocked Strait of Hormuz on the other. The 50 closed at 24,395.85, down 40.10 points or 0.16 per cent, while the managed a marginal gain of 0.15 per cent to end at 78,079, helped in part by weekly Sensex expiry-day choppiness.
“…the rebound lacked sustained momentum, resulting in a range-bound session,” noted Hitesh Tailor of Choice Equity Broking, capturing the mood of a market that tried to recover twice during the day and failed to hold either move.
The session was anything but dull beneath the surface. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plunged 90 per cent, with Iran disputing US control claims and peace talks stalled, a development that market watchers say could reignite the energy price spiral India endured in July. Brent crude hovered around $87–89 a barrel, while WTI fell over 1 per cent to around $81.5 a barrel amid signs of softer demand. Domestic crude futures slipped nearly 2.5 per cent to below the ₹7,800 mark.
Meanwhile, India’s CPI inflation accelerated to 4.45 per cent in July from 4.4 per cent in June, the second consecutive month above the Reserve Bank of India’s 4 per cent medium-term target, driven by higher fuel and food costs linked in part to the shipping disruptions. WPI manufacturing inflation also rose sharply to 7.5 per cent in June. “…elevated crude oil prices remain a key overhang, with geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East preventing a stronger risk-on move,” said Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments.
Sectoral performance was split. Realty, FMCG, and Chemicals offered support, while Metal, Banking, Financial Services, and Oil & Gas remained under pressure. Bank Nifty bore the brunt, closing at 57,635.25, down 250.60 points or 0.43 per cent. The broader market held its ground, the Nifty Midcap 100 gained 0.15 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 advanced 0.27 per cent, with stock-specific action keeping participation alive. Tata Consumer Products, NTPC, and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles were among the top Nifty gainers, while Hindalco, ICICI Bank, and UltraTech Cement dragged.
The rupee weakened 10–11 paise to close around 95.43–95.48 against the dollar, underperforming Asian peers as importer dollar demand combined with the inflation reading and elevated crude kept pressure on the domestic currency. The US Dollar Index holding near 100 compounded the pain. Gold on MCX declined roughly ₹800 to ₹1,54,050, while COMEX gold slipped nearly $25 to $3,385 per ounce, as the US CPI print of 3.4 per cent, broadly in line with expectations, prompted profit-booking in bullion after a recent rally priced in much of the relief.
On the earnings front, standout moves came from Astral, which surged 8 per cent on 48 per cent profit growth with expanding margins, and Solar Industries, also up over 8 per cent, with revenue growing 70 per cent and profit jumping 89 per cent on defence demand. Page Industries fell after margin contraction flagged stress in the premium consumption segment.
In a broader structural note, Equirus Capital’s Ajay Garg and economist Khushali Dutt argued in a new policy paper that India’s $20 trillion GDP target by 2036 is achievable through twenty reforms, from a National GCC Policy and Railways listing to a sovereign fund on Temasek lines, most of which require administrative will more than new money. “…the way the economy grows will matter just as much as how fast,” the paper argued.
Looking ahead, Friday brings a cluttered calendar. India’s WPI data, EU GDP figures, and US retail sales are all due, alongside quarterly results from Ashok Leyland, NMDC, Alkem Laboratories, and Cochin Shipyard. “…Nifty is expected to trade sideways with a marginal negative bias,” said Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal, with geopolitical developments in West Asia and crude price direction likely to set the early tone.