India’s market is projected to nearly triple from $125 billion in 2024 to $345 billion by 2030, driven by rising incomes, expanding internet penetration and increasing digital adoption, according to a report by research consultancy Infisum, supported by public policy think-tank Empower India.
The report, titled Smart Growth in a Fast Market, estimates that India’s e-commerce sector will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 18.4 per cent through 2030. Online commerce could account for 10-12 per cent of retail spending by the end of the decade, with 420-440 million online shoppers and a contribution of 2.5 per cent to GDP.
Traditional B2C e-commerce is expected to remain the largest segment, contributing nearly two-thirds of total e-retail gross merchandise value (GMV).
Quick commerce, meanwhile, is emerging as the fastest-growing segment. The report estimates the market could reach $65-70 billion by 2030 and account for 45-50 per cent of incremental e-retail growth over the next five years. The number of dark stores is expected to nearly triple from 2,525 in 2025 to around 7,500 by 2030.
The report benchmarks Amazon Now, Flipkart, Blinkit, Zepto, Swiggy Instamart, JioMart, Tata Neu and Meesho across several strategic parameters. Blinkit remains the market leader in quick commerce, with a 44 per cent share and 900 million orders processed in FY26, followed by Zepto at 25 per cent and Swiggy Instamart at 20 per cent.
Amazon Now’s entry is positioned as an extension of its established ecommerce ecosystem, with the company combining rapid delivery with its existing customer base, Prime benefits and product selection. The report said Amazon could gain significant ground by leveraging consumer trust and existing shopping behaviour.
NITI Aayog fellow Dr Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan said quick commerce should increasingly be viewed as permanent retail infrastructure rather than a temporary trend. He argued that Amazon Now and Flipkart Minutes have an opportunity to compete strongly with the established quick-commerce players, particularly because of their existing consumer bases and brand familiarity.
Beyond delivery, artificial intelligence is expected to become a major driver of productivity in digital retail. AI and machine learning could improve retail productivity by 35-37 per cent by 2030, while conversational commerce, virtual try-ons, personalised recommendations and voice-enabled shopping reshape customer discovery and purchasing.
The next wave of growth is also expected to come from smaller cities. Nearly 66 per cent of new D2C orders originate from Tier-II and Tier-III cities, while around 150 million new online shoppers are expected to enter the digital economy by 2030.
The report, however, flagged fraud, returns, regulatory changes and profitability pressures as key challenges even as opportunities expand across quick commerce, D2C, social commerce, AI-led retail and cross-border commerce.