From stronger-than-expected economic growth sparking debates over past revisions, to a widening current account deficit driven by a sharper merchandise trade gap, a manufacturing activity slowdown, while services recover, a sustained streak in strong GST collections driven by import revenues and a weaker monsoon outlook raising concerns over farm output, food inflation and rural demand — here are this week’s news in numbers.
Domestic resilience
India’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at 7.8% in June quarter (Q1FY27), beating the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 7% projection and a Mint poll’s 7.4% median forecast. The momentum underscored resilience in despite uncertainty linked to the West Asia war. Sectorally, growth was largely broad-based, led by services (10%) and manufacturing (9.2%), while recorded 3.6%. However, the revisions in past growth numbers have raised eyebrows. While growth in the previous quarter was raised by 0.8 percentage points to 8.6%, several quarters have seen downward revision from figures released in early June, owing to methodological changes.
Deficit deepens
India’s current account deficit widened marginally in Q1FY27, amid higher commodity prices and a wider trade gap, showed the latest data. The gap stood at $4.2 billion, or 0.5% of GDP, in Q1FY27, compared with a revised deficit of $3.4 billion, or 0.4% of GDP, in the same quarter a year ago.
A widening gap continued to outweigh the country’s sizable services surplus. The merchandise trade deficit widened to $86.1 billion in Q1FY27 from $68.9 billion a year earlier, while the services trade expanded to $51.6 billion from $47.9 billion during the same quarter.
Diverging momentum
Manufacturing and service activity recovered slightly in August, although their performances diverged. India’s manufacturing growth slowed to its weakest pace in more than five years as a moderation in output and new orders curbed input purchasing, even as export demand rose and inflation moderated. The HSBC India Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index () fell to 52.8 in August from 53.5 in July, below its long-run average of 54.2. Services activity strengthened, with the India services PMI rising to 54.1 in August from 53.3 in July, supported by stronger output and new business, although growth remained among the weakest in over four years.
Numbers talk:
26.8%: India’s fiscal deficit as percentage of budgeted estimates in April-July period. It stood ₹4.55 trillion. The figure shows fiscal position remained comfortable despite a sharp pick-up in capital expenditure.
$5 billion: The bilateral trade target India and Uzbekistan have set, alongside an agreement to broaden goods trade, remove non-tariff barriers and address investment hurdles, as the two countries seek to deepen economic ties.
$1 trillion: The five-year investment state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp. plans through FY31 on deepwater exploration, targeting 5,600 million tonnes of oil-equivalent reserves to boost domestic energy production and reduce reliance on imported crude.
1%: The stake State Bank of India (SBI) plans to dilute in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) through an initial public offering (IPO), with SBI divesting 0.65% and its subsidiary SBI Capital Markets 0.35%, as both hold stakes in the exchange.
₹10: The increase per cylinder in commercial liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices across key metros. The hike follows a rise in international LPG prices, with Saudi contract prices for propane and butane increasing last month.
Revenue streak
India’s goods and services tax (GST) collections continue to be strong following the initial impact of the rate cuts announced last year. Gross GST collections rose 14.8% to nearly ₹2 trillion in August, but were below the ₹2.1 trillion collected in July.
The increase was driven largely by import revenues, which surged 29% to ₹0.62 trillion. Domestic GST revenue also remained firm, rising 9.3% to ₹1.4 trillion from a year earlier. The increase in gross collections was partly offset by a sharp rise 67.9% jump in refunds to ₹0.32 trillion in August from a year earlier.
Rainfall retreat
The Southwest monsoon has entered its final leg, with India’s weather office forecasting rainfall in September at 9% below the long-period average, raising concerns over kharif crop yields, food inflation and rural demand. While many parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall this month, parts of northwest, northeast, east, east-central and southeast peninsular India are expected to get normal to above-normal rainfall, said the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Monsoon has already fared poorly this year, with rainfall below normal on more than 70% of days since its 4 June arrival through late August. The deficit is particularly concerning after India experienced its hottest August on record since 1901.