Indian stock market: Indian equity markets extended their losing streak for a fifth straight week, weighed down by elevated crude oil prices, rising global bond yields and persistent concerns over US inflation.
The benchmarks opened the week on a weak footing and remained under pressure for most of the trading sessions. The Sensex declined 2.27% to end at 74,781.76, while the slipped 2.09% to 23,398.10. Broader markets also faced selling pressure, with the midcap index falling 1.40% and the smallcap index declining 0.88%.
Geopolitical tensions and high crude oil prices continued to dominate investor sentiment. Rising tensions between the US and Iran fuelled concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies, while Brent crude’s return to the US$110-per-barrel level heightened worries over imported inflation, the current account deficit, corporate margins and the rupee.
“The Indian equity benchmarks ended the week on a negative note, with the 50 declining nearly 2% to close at 23,398, while the Bank Nifty declined 1.33% during the week. Sectoral performance remained under pressure, with Cement, Metals, Technology and Realty witnessing profit booking and declining nearly 3–5%. From a macro perspective, geopolitical uncertainties remain elevated, particularly around the US–Iran tensions and broader developments in the Middle East. Movements in crude oil prices and global market cues are likely to remain important factors for the domestic market in the coming week. Brent crude oil prices surged nearly 8% during the week and closed around $104 per barrel, raising concerns over inflation and global risk sentiment,” said Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Anand Rathi.
Ganesh Dongre’s market outlook for this week
According to Dongre, the key event to watch in the coming week will be the US Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.
Market participants will closely monitor the Fed’s stance, guidance and commentary on inflation and future monetary policy. Expectations of a rate move have increased, and therefore, the announcement could trigger heightened volatility across global equity markets. Until the outcome of the meeting, traders are likely to remain cautious, he said.
Nifty 50
On the outlook, Dongre said that from a technical perspective, as highlighted earlier, the Nifty had entered an overbought zone following its sharp rally, increasing the possibility of profit booking and sideways consolidation.
“This view has largely played out, with the index continuing to face difficulty sustaining above the 24,500–24,600 resistance zone, which remains a crucial technical barrier as it coincides with the 200-day EMA. The Nifty has now witnessed further selling pressure and moved closer to its previous low of around 23,250. However, the index has entered an oversold zone on the short-term charts, which could result in a technical bounce or short-term consolidation from current levels. Nevertheless, the broader technical structure remains cautious as rising geopolitical tensions and higher crude oil prices could further influence global inflation expectations and market sentiment,” he said.
Bank Nifty
On the Bank Nifty outlook, he added that the index also remained largely under selling pressure during the week and is currently trading near its 200-day EMA around 56,600, making this level an important technical zone to watch. If the 200-day EMA holds during the coming week, the index could retain its constructive medium-term structure.
“The broader support zone is placed around 56,000–56,300, while on the upside, 58,000–58,500 remains a crucial resistance zone. A decisive and sustained breakout above 58,500 would strengthen the bullish setup and could signal a resumption of the medium-term uptrend,” he added.
Overall outlook
Overall, both the Nifty and Bank Nifty continue to maintain a positive medium-term structure, despite the recent profit booking and correction. The current decline can still be viewed as a phase of consolidation following the earlier rally rather than a confirmed structural trend reversal.
“Near-term risks have increased due to geopolitical uncertainties, elevated crude oil prices and the upcoming US Fed policy decision. Hence, traders should remain cautious and closely monitor 23,000–24,000 on the Nifty, with 23,800 acting as an important recovery level, while for the Bank Nifty, 56,000–56,300 remains the key support zone and 58,500 the major resistance. A sustained breakout above the respective resistance levels would provide confirmation of renewed upward momentum, while a decisive break below the key supports could lead to further corrective pressure,” Dongre said.
Weekly stocks to buy or sell
Bharat Heavy Electricals: Buy at ₹428-432, target price of ₹445, stop loss of ₹420.
Hindustan Petroleum Corp: Buy at ₹350-352, target price of ₹370, stop loss of ₹338.
Shriram Finance: Buy at ₹1020-1025, target price of ₹1060, stop loss of ₹1000.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.