The threat of a fresh 100% US tariff on purchases from countries buying Russian oil and gas comes at a time when India’s reliance on Moscow has increased sharply, reaching 51% of total crude imports in July. This complicates the country’s ongoing diversification bid amid an energy crisis triggered by the West Asia war.
The US House of Representatives passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Bill 2026 on Wednesday, allowing President Donald Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100% on major importers of Russian oil and gas, including India and China. The Act now awaits Trump’s signature before coming into effect.
Crude shifts
Over the past year-and-a-half, India’s crude oil imports from Russia have seen sharp shifts as US policy towards countries buying Russian oil has changed. Russian crude accounted for 11 million tonnes, or 51% of India’s total imports, in July, up steadily after the US waived restrictions on Russian oil purchases amid the .
This was up from about 4.5-5.8 million tonnes, or roughly about 25% of total imports, from the pre-war period in December 2025 to February 2026, when additional 25% reciprocal tariffs were in effect for much of the period, targeting India specifically for Russian oil imports.
As India faced an energy crisis due to the West Asia war, the country diversified its energy sources, from Russia to Brazil and Angola. While there were smaller gains across several countries, Russia stood out as its share jumped to 42% in March-July compared to 32% during the same period last year. The fresh tariff threats could put India under pressure due to its heavy reliance on Russian oil, especially since the West Asia is far from over.
Reacting to the development, the government, in a statement on Thursday, said India remained committed to ensuring energy security through diversified sourcing as well as to take all necessary measures to protect its trade and economic interests.
Tariffs, reversals, and more tariffs
While reciprocal tariffs by the US were imposed on nearly every country, India came under additional fire after the world’s largest economy imposed an additional tariff of 25% (taking the total to 50%) in late August for high purchases of Russian oil. Its impact became evident a few months later, between December and January, when the share of Russian declined sharply. By February, three events changed the dynamic again.
First, in early February, India and the US reached a bilateral trade agreement, which lowered US tariffs on India from 25% to 18% and scrapped the additional 25% tariff after India agreed to “stop directly or indirectly” importing Russian oil.
Second, the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on 20 February, offering major relief from the tariff threats.
Third, the war in West Asia broke out in late February, triggering one of the worst energy crises in decades. Against this backdrop, the US government issued waivers for Indian purchases of Russian oil, which lasted until mid-June.
However, once again, just as India increased its reliance on Russian oil imports, it faces the threat of fresh 100% tariffs, along with other countries that are among the top buyers of Russian oil and gas. This also casts a shadow on the February bilateral agreement—yet to be officially signed—even as commerce secretary Rajesh Agrawal, on 9 September, said the deal was “more or less finalised”.