Every week, Mint’s Plain Facts section features key data releases and announcements to watch out for in the coming week.
The Reserve Bank of India’s latest bank credit and deposit data will show whether the sharp acceleration in deposit growth is holding up, while September’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Index will provide an early reading of private-sector activity. August output data for the eight core industries will indicate how industrial momentum is holding up. In the US, comments from Federal Reserve officials will be watched for signals on the rate path as higher oil prices add to inflation risks. With World Tourism Day approaching on 27 September, foreign tourist arrivals also offer a snapshot of how India compares with other countries.
Here are the key developments to watch in the next seven days:
Deposits push
Bank deposits have grown at a faster pace than credit, with growth reaching 17.8% by end-August from 12% in mid-June. The Reserve Bank of India’s fortnightly bank credit and deposit data for 15 September, due this week, will show whether the pace of deposit growth holds. In the fortnight ended 31 August, deposits rose by ₹9.4 trillion, while credit increased by ₹3.8 trillion. Credit growth rose to 19.1% from 18% on 15 August, helped by a favourable base effect and continued demand for bank loans.
Deposit growth has also moved closer to credit growth, rising from 13.3% at end-June to 17.8% at end-August, compared with a rise in credit growth from 18.6% to 19.1%. The sharp rise in deposits during the period came as banks mobilised funds ahead of the 31 August deadline for the special , with most of the increase coming from time deposits. CareEdge Ratings expects deposit growth to moderate in the coming fortnights and credit growth to ease to 15-16% in FY27 as favourable base effects fade.
PMI pulse
India’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures for September are due on 23 September, offering an early reading of private-sector activity before the final numbers are released. An analysis of flash and final figures shows the flash composite PMI has been revised down in nine of the past 13 months since August 2025.
In August 2026, for instance, the flash composite PMI of 54.6 was revised down to 54.3 in the final reading. The final composite PMI exceeded the flash reading only in March and May 2026 and October 2025 during this period. However, the pattern differs across manufacturing and services. Manufacturing flash readings have generally been higher than the final figures, with the final PMI falling short in 10 of the past 13 months.
Services has shown the opposite trend, with the final PMI exceeding the flash reading in seven of the past 13 months. In August, the final rose to 57.9 from 56.9 in July, while services PMI eased to 60.5 from 61.2, keeping the composite PMI at 59.8.
Core check
The August data for eight core infrastructure industries will be released this week, with the latest data showing a broad weakening across sectors in the aftermath of the West Asia war. A Mint analysis of sector-wise data showed only iron ore and electricity recorded stronger average growth in the five months compared to their pre-war averages.
Iron ore growth averaged 27.8% in March-July, up from 14.4% in October-February, supported by stronger steel demand and a low base. Electricity growth rose to 7.6% from 1%, although the pace eased in July as cooler weather reduced power demand.
saw the sharpest deterioration, with average growth falling from 4.9% before the war to a 9.1% contraction after it. War-related disruptions to LNG supplies and higher prices of ammonia and sulphur affected fertilizer production, particularly in the June quarter. Steel growth slowed to 5.6% from 11.2%, while refinery products, coal and cement also recorded lower average growth. Crude oil and natural gas remained in contraction, reflecting continued weakness in domestic production.
Fed talk
Markets will watch comments from Federal Reserve officials John Williams and Philip Jefferson on Tuesday for clues on the next steps in US monetary policy, after the to 3.75-4% last week.
The remarks come as oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel amid the West Asia war, adding to inflation risks just as the Fed has resumed tightening after a three-year pause. US headline inflation rose to 3.4% in August from 2.4% in January, with energy inflation at 16.3%, although inflation excluding food and energy eased to 2.4% from 2.5% over the same period.
The Fed’s latest projections point to one more hike this year, while inflation is now expected at 3.7% in 2026, up from 3.6% projected in June. Economic activity and investment have held up, giving the central bank more room to focus on inflation. Williams, president of the New York Fed, and Jefferson, the Fed’s vice chair, will offer an early read on whether officials see the projected additional hike as appropriate and whether the oil shock could alter the rate path. Their comments will also be relevant for US Treasury yields and the dollar.
Travel trails
With World Tourism Day marked on 27 September, data on from a range of emerging market economies places India among the least popular travel destinations despite being home to as many as 45 Unesco World Heritage Sites. In 2025, India drew 9.2 million tourists from abroad, well behind peer countries like Turkey at 52.8 million, China at 35.2 million, Thailand at 33 million, Malaysia at 26.6 million and Vietnam at 21.2 million. Moreover, India’s foreign tourist arrivals fell in 2025 from just under 10 million in 2024.
A major contributor to this decline was the sharp decline in tourists from Bangladesh stemming from geopolitical tensions and more stringent visa requirements. The number of tourists from Bangladesh fell by a whopping 73% in 2025— down to 0.47 million from 1.75 million in 2024— with visitors from other major source countries, including the US, UK and Australia, remaining largely unchanged. Foreign tourism to India had peaked in 2019 at 10.9 million, a level that the country is yet to recover to since the covid-19 pandemic.