NEW DELHI: India’s beer industry is betting on sun and state support to pull itself out of two years of disruption.
Early summer heat in the north and relaxed state regulations are giving brewers such as United Breweries and AB InBev a head start, but executives warn recovery remains fragile, hinging on weather, policy shifts, and supply bottlenecks.
With April and May accounting for the bulk of annual sales, the next few months could determine whether FY26 ends in modest growth or stalls once again.
Sales grew 5-6% in January and February after a rain-hit end to 2025. Vivek Gupta, chief executive officer of Bengaluru-headquartered United Breweries, told Mint, “We need to see how the weather holds up and how much it impacts consumption.”
India’s beer market, which sold about 440 million cases in 2025, is expected to close FY26 with 4-5% growth despite a weak first half. The industry is now looking to FY27 for a more meaningful rebound, with volumes likely to reach 455-460 million cases if favourable weather persists, said Vinod Giri, director general of the Brewers Association of India.
“Despite all the early setbacks in FY26, we should end the year in positive territory, around 3-4% growth. If the weather holds, even a normal summer should see the industry grow 8-10% (in FY27),” he added.
April and May typically account for the bulk of annual beer sales, making these months critical for brewers. March is usually slower, as license renewals in many states briefly disrupt supply.
The Brewers Association of India, representing United Breweries, AB InBev, and Carlsberg, accounts for roughly 80% of the country’s beer market, according to international drinks consultancy IWSR. The rest of the market is held by smaller players such as Simba, , KatiPatang, and BeeYoung, among others.
India is expected to sell about 450 million cases by FY27, with the sector projected to grow 7-8% annually over the long term, the Brewers Association said.
Early signs are encouraging. An AB InBev India spokesperson said demand is improving in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Assam, and Andhra Pradesh, supported by both a rising number of consumers and a steady shift toward premium beers. Its premium brands—Budweiser, Hoegaarden, and Corona—continue to lead growth.
Regulatory tailwinds
The current improvement follows a turbulent period. In 2025, and election-related restrictions hit peak summer sales for a second consecutive year. Policy changes and delays in license approvals further disrupted supply in several markets.
Some recent reforms are beginning to support demand. Uttar Pradesh nearly doubled the number of outlets allowed to sell beer, driving sales up more than 13% despite weather disruptions. Assam and Andhra Pradesh also saw sharp growth after tax and regulatory adjustments, while Maharashtra’s revisions improved beer’s competitiveness against spirits.
Moves such as Karnataka’s decision to lower taxes on lighter alcoholic drinks could further boost demand. Together, these changes could help the industry return to 8-10% growth in FY27 if weather conditions remain favourable, Giri said, a view echoed by several other industry executives.
They said a stronger heatwave might lift demand further, mostly for lower-priced beers that dominate overall sales.
Brewers such as Simba are betting on , particularly for premium and craft beers. Companies are ramping up production and building inventories ahead of peak season.
Still, some remain cautious. Gupta of United Breweries noted the industry must aim for a steady 6-7% growth rate after a volatile period.