Asian stocks surged while gold and bonds retreated on Monday as signs of easing trade tensions between China and the US buoyed risk appetite, in a strong start to a week that will be headlined by central bank meetings and megacap earnings.
Top Chinese and US economic officials hashed out on Sunday the framework of a trade deal for US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to decide on later this week in their eagerly anticipated meeting in South Korea.
A trade deal would pause steeper American tariffs and Chinese rare earths export controls, helping soothe investor nerves that were frayed due to escalating trade tensions between the world’s top two economies.
That sent stocks sharply higher, with South Korea’s KOSPI, Taiwan stocks and Japan’s Nikkei adding more than 2 per cent each and crossing landmarks to record highs. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares rose 1.3 per cent to a record peak.
“Investors will want to see confirmation that the trade truce holds and that China’s stimulus and reform signals translate into tangible growth momentum,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo.
US stock futures jumped, with Nasdaq futures up 1 per cent. European futures were 0.5 per cent higher. The Nikkei breached 50,000 for the first time, while the Kospi rose above 4,000.
George Boubouras, managing director of K2 Asset Management, said the market is content with the US-China momentum in recent days. “Over the past few months the market has been looking through global tariff negotiations understanding that some commentary can be a bit of theatre and noise.”
The Australian dollar, often seen as a risk and China proxy, climbed 0.42 per cent to $0.6541, near a two-week high. Chinese blue-chip stocks added 0.84 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.78 per cent.
Safe-haven gold eased 1 per cent, while US Treasuries fell, leaving the benchmark 10-year bond yield up 3.8 basis points. Commodities, including soyabeans, wheat and corn rose on trade deal prospects.
Central bank meetings await
Investor focus this week will also be on central bank meetings in Japan, Canada, Europe and the US.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points after data showed US consumer prices increased slightly less than expected in September, but the government shutdown and its impact on data remain a concern.
The dollar was slightly higher at 151.13 yen, hovering near a two-week high. The euro last bought $1.16215. The dollar index was flat at 98.982.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are both broadly expected to hold rates steady later this week.
Although the BOJ is likely to debate whether conditions are ripe to resume rate hikes as worries about a tariff-induced recession ease, political complications may keep it on hold for now.
Focus on megacap earnings
The busiest part of the US earnings season is upon us, with megacaps Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta Platforms all due to report results this week.
While the profit edge of the “Magnificent Seven”, a group of companies with huge market capitalisations whose shares dominate equity indexes, over the rest of the index is narrowing, they are still expected to post stronger results for this period.
A number of the megacap companies are also key players in the artificial intelligence industry, enthusiasm for which has been the main driver of stock market performance.
Saxo’s Chanana said the US earnings season and guidance from big tech will be key to gauging how resilient corporate profits remain in a slowing economy.
“So while sentiment has improved, the coming week will test whether optimism can turn into durable conviction.”
(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman; Editing by Stephen
Coates)