The Bihar election 2025 has concluded with record voter turnout, and several exit polls suggest the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may return to power.
The outcome of assembly elections usually does not have a major impact on stock market sentiment, as they are contested on local issues and may not necessarily influence the pace or extent of the central government’s policy decisions.
However, it is difficult to say that the results of the 2025 Bihar elections, the third most populous state in India, will be a non-event for the markets.
Bihar election 2025: What do exit polls say?
As Mint reported, the Bihar election’s exit polls put the NDA in an advantageous position. Dainik Bhaskar predicts 145–160 seats for NDA and 73–91 seats for Mahagathbandhan (MGB). People’s Insight predicts 133–148 seats for NDA and 87–102 seats for MGB. People’s Pulse expects 133–159 seats for NDA and 75–101 seats for MGB.
Track Bihar exit poll results 2025 live updates
How may Bihar election 2025 result impact the Indian stock market?
Bihar represents 7 per cent of the total Lok Sabha seats in India. Experts believe an NDA victory will be sentimentally positive for the market, while its defeat may weigh on sentiment.
Nevertheless, the results are unlikely to have a lingering impact on the domestic market as they may not trigger any major changes in the central government’s policies and capital expenditure plans.
“Lok Sabha seats represent around 7 per cent of the total number of Lok Sabha seats, which is quite significant. Still, even if NDA shows poor performance in the exit poll, it may give any major setback to the stock markets in the short term,” said G Chokkalingam, the founder and head of research at Equinomics Research Private Limited.
However, Chokkalingam believes assembly election verdicts close to the 2029 Lok Sabha election would be highly critical for stock markets.
Chokkalingam underscored that the next Lok Sabha election is still far away – election verdicts have surprised even within three to six months. Hence, the market may not worry or reward much for any decisive outcome from this Bihar poll, as the next Lok Sabha election is likely to happen after 3.5 years.
The previous Bihar state assembly election verdict and subsequent market movement would, to a large extent, substantiate this point.
VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, believes a decisive win for the NDA will be a sentiment positive from the market perspective, but it is unlikely to influence the present market trend in any way.
“The market is in a consolidation phase supported by prospects of improving earnings growth, but is prevented from breaking out to new record levels by sustained FII selling. A poor show by the NDA will be sentiment negative,” said Vijayakumar.
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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.