Gold ($4,497/ounce) and silver ($67.90/ounce) prices crashed by 10.4 per cent and 15.8 per cent respectively last week. Similarly, in the domestic market, gold futures (₹1,44,492/10gm) slumped 8.8 per cent whereas silver futures (₹2,26,772/kg) was down 12.6 per cent.
MCX-Gold (₹1,44,492)
Gold futures breached the support at ₹1,58,000 last Monday and saw a considerable decline in the following sessions. After marking a low of ₹1,41,121 on Thursday, the contract recovered a little to close the week at ₹1,44,492.
The chart shows weakness but there are support levels ahead at ₹1,44,000 and ₹1,39,000. On the back of this, we might see a corrective rally this week, possibly to ₹1,52,000. But this is likely to be followed by another leg of downtrend.
But if gold futures declines from the current level, it can touch ₹1,39,000. A breach of this can drag it further lower to ₹1,34,000.
Trade strategy: Go short on gold futures if it rises to ₹1,51,000. Place stop-loss at ₹1,53,000. When the price drops to ₹1,44,000 after the trade is initiated, revise the stop-loss to ₹1,47,000. Book profits at ₹1,39,000.
MCX-Silver (₹2,26,772)
Silver futures (May) closed below the support at ₹2,36,000 last week. So, unlike gold futures, which is now testing a support, silver futures has slipped below it and hence, it is weaker in comparison.
That said, there is a chance for a price rise to ₹2,50,000. Post this, the contract can drop to ₹2,00,000, a psychological support. But it might as well start declining from the current level of ₹2,26,772 without a corrective rally to ₹2,50,000. Either way, the likelihood of a decline to ₹2,00,000 is high.
Trade strategy: Sell silver futures if it rises to ₹2,49,000. Target and stop-loss can be ₹2,00,000 and ₹2,63,000 respectively.