New Delhi: India is set to significantly reduce direct imports of Russian crude oil from late November as new US sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil take effect on November 21. Analysts suggest that Indian refiners, which account for more than half of the country’s Russian crude used in petrol and diesel production, will largely comply with the new restrictions.
Maritime intelligence firm Kpler, cited by PTI, predicts a steep decline in Russian crude deliveries to India in December. A gradual recovery is expected by early 2026, facilitated by intermediaries and alternative trading arrangements.
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Reliance Industries Ltd, which maintains a long-term supply agreement with Rosneft, is reportedly planning to stop purchasing Russian crude. Two state-owned refiners, the Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd and the HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, a joint venture between the Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd and the Mittal Energy, have also confirmed they will cease imports from Russia.
Collectively, these three companies handled over half of India’s 1.8 million barrels per day of Russian crude imports in the first half of 2025.
However, Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery, partially owned by Rosneft and already under European Union sanctions, is expected to continue sourcing Russian crude.
Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst Sumit Ritolia emphasised that Russia remained India’s largest crude supplier in October, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia. “Most Indian refiners are expected to comply with US sanctions and halt or reduce direct crude purchases from Rosneft and Lukoil,” he said.
He added that while Russian oil will remain part of India’s imports, future deliveries will involve more complex logistics and trading arrangements.
To make up for the shortfall from Russia, Indian refiners are ramping up purchases from other regions, including the Middle East, Latin America, West Africa, Canada and the United States. Imports of US crude reached 568,000 barrels per day in October, marking the highest level since March 2021.
Analysts said these flows were largely driven by market and economic factors rather than sanctions. Deliveries are expected to normalise to 250,000-350,000 barrels per day in December and January.
“We expect a sharp decline in Russian crude imports in December, followed by a gradual recovery through mid-to-late Q1 2026, as new intermediaries emerge and alternative routes are established. Higher freight costs could limit the scale of substitution by eroding arbitrage opportunities,” Ritolia added.
Indian refiners are now actively diversifying their crude sourcing. The strategy includes increasing imports from Latin America, the United States, West Africa and the Middle East, while maintaining a controlled level of Russian oil imports via intermediaries. This move reflects India’s effort to balance compliance with international sanctions while ensuring uninterrupted fuel supply for the domestic market.
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