India’s GDP at constant prices in the first half of the current financial year H1FY23 (April to September 2022) is recorded as Rs 75.02 lakh crore, which is 9.7 per cent higher than Rs 68.36 lakh crore in the same period last year H1FY22. However, in the pre-Covid era, during the first six months of FY20, India’s GDP was Rs 70.95 lakh crore.
India received $13.74 billion in foreign investment inflow in the first ten months (January to October) of the year 2022. In 2021, India received foreign investments worth $33.2 billion. Also, before Covid, in 2019, India received $62.1 billion in foreign investments.
As of September 2022, outstanding external debt on India was $610.5 billion, which is slightly down (0.4 per cent) as against $613 billion in December 2021. However, India’s external debt has increased 8.3 per cent in three years from $563.9 billion in December 2019 (pre-Covid level).
Total forex reserves stood at $550.1 billion on November 2022, which is 13.2 per cent lower from $633.6 billion on December 2021. In contrast to this, forex reserves are 20.3 per cent higher than $457.5 billion in the pre-Covid era of December 2019.
The country registered a 22.6 per cent annual growth in GST collection. The total GST collected in the calendar year 2022 reached Rs 17.54 lakh crore from Rs 14.31 lakh crore in CY21. In a three-year period, this growth is 44.4 per cent from Rs 12.15 lakh crore in CY19.
Total bank credit has grown 11.1 per cent at Rs 128.6 lakh crore as on October 2022 from Rs 115.8 lakh crore on December 2021. From Rs 99.7 lakh crore in December 2019, the current bank credit rose 29.1 per cent.
The latest CPI reading in November 2022 was 5.88 per cent, which cooled down from its peak of 7.79 per cent in April this year. However, the average consumer price inflation this year till November is recorded at 6.79 per cent, which was 5.14 per cent in CY21. This, while average inflation in pre-Covid year CY19 was 3.71 per cent.
India’s total external-debt-to-GDP ratio in FY22 is 19.86 per cent, which has improved from 21.17 per cent in FY21. However, in FY19 this ratio was at the same level at 19.87 per cent as it is now in FY22.
Due to higher crude prices and the depreciation of the rupee this year, India’s trade deficit has widened to $249.7 billion in just eleven months from January to November 2022. This trade deficit was $177.6 billion in 12 months last year (Jan-Dec 2021). Also, before Covid in 2019, the total trade deficit for the whole year was $161.7 billion.
The latest IIP reading in November 2022 was 129.6, which has declined from its peak of 148.8 in March this year, indicating a sharp slowdown in Industrial production. However, the average IIP index reading this year from January to October 2022 is recorded as 136, which was recorded as 130.9 last year (Jan to Dec 2021). This, while average industrial production stood at 130.5 in the pre-Covid year (CY19).
Total monthly aircraft passengers number stood at 2.83 crore on November 2022, which has increased by 21.8 per cent from the same month last year. However, before Covid, the average number of passengers traveling through aircraft was 2.94 crores monthly.
In 2022, India’s banking and industrial activities have recovered from the Covid shock, which is also visible from increasing GST collection, GDP growth, and air traffic numbers. However, due to external factors, mainly due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, prices of crude have risen sharply last year, which has hurt India’s trade balance also depreciation of the rupee against the US Dollar has led to increased deficit and inflation in the country.
Now, with the growing fear of an economic slowdown in the US and Europe, foreign investment is also reducing in India. However, strong domestic macros are helping the economy but to grow rapidly, India also requires favorable external factors, which seems difficult in the near term.
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