Indian markets are likely to open in the negative zone on Friday as geopolitical tensions continue to anchor market movements. Marksmen are analysing the US President Donald Trump’s statement saying he has pushed back a self-imposed deadline for attacks on Iran’s power grid to April 6, citing progress in negotiations to end the ongoing war in the country. While oil prices are falling, stocks still remain under pressure.
Brokerage downgrades weigh on sentiment
After Bernstein and UBS, Goldman Sachs has also downgraded India’s equity market to “marketweight” from its earlier rating of “overweight”, and also cut its 12-month Nifty 50 target to 25,300 from 29,500 earlier.
Gift Nifty at 23,045 indicates that Nifty may lose over 250 points at open.
Gift Nifty at 23,045 (7 am) indicates that Nifty may lose over 250 points at open.
Japan’s Nikkei is down nearly 1000 points while Korea’s Kospi slumped over 4 per cent in early deals on Friday.
Experts remain cautious despite diplomatic signals
According to experts, marketsmen remain sceptical despite the US President’s conciliatory tones.
Vikrant Chaturvedi, Associate Director – Research, Brickwork Ratings, said Indian equity markets have staged a sharp recovery in recent trades, reversing recent losses as geopolitical and macroeconomic signals turned more supportive. The Sensex climbed over 1,200 points, and the Nifty crossed 23,300, buoyed by hopes of diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran, which temporarily eased fears of prolonged West Asia tensions.
“That said, the durability of this rebound hinges on geopolitical clarity. Iran has disputed claims of diplomatic progress, and Gulf conditions remain unresolved. Moreover, US diplomacy appears more tactical than substantive, likely aimed at buying time to prepare a larger strategy against Iran. Until clearer signals emerge, this rally appears sentiment driven rather than a lasting structural uptrend,” he cautioned.
Global markets signal weak start
According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the deepening conflict in the Middle East has renewed a risk-off tone across global markets, with U.S. equities closing sharply lower overnight. Asian markets followed suit, with South Korea’s KOSPI dropping more than 3% and Japan’s Nikkei falling over 1.5%, signalling a weak start for Indian equities. “The broader market backdrop remains fragile, with crude oil prices, geopolitical developments, currency movements, and foreign investor flows set to shape the near-term direction.,” he added.
While there are intermittent signs of de-escalation, the risk of renewed escalation persists, keeping markets highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, he further said.
However, analysts expect select counters to see value buying at lower levels.