Gold rate rose by over 1% in opening deals on the MCX on Tuesday, March 31, on value buying amid a positive global trend. Silver prices jumped by over 3%, mirroring the global trend. However, both precious metals appear set to end the month on a negative note.
MCX gold June futures rose by more than ₹1,900, or 1.30%, to ₹1,49,596 per 10 grams, while MCX silver jumped by ₹8,400, or nearly 4%, to ₹2,37,402 per kg on Tuesday.
U.S. for June delivery gained by 2% to $4,649.26.
According to Reuters, international gold prices are set for their biggest monthly drop in nearly two decades because of fading expectations of US Fed rate cuts amid rising crude oil prices and a stronger dollar.
In India, spot were down nearly 8% and silver 14% in March till the 30th, as per MCX data.
Is it the right time to buy gold?
Experts say that while the recent correction in gold prices has been significant, it is not an ideal time to go aggressive on the yellow metal.
Vandana Bharti, the head of commodity research at SMC Global Securities, pointed out that gold is currently testing a critical support zone between ₹1,42,000 and ₹1,44,500.
“This floor is a ‘must-hold’ level; a breach here could trigger a deeper slide toward ₹1,36,800. Positive triggers, such as persistent geopolitical friction in West Asia and ongoing central bank diversification, continue to provide a “buy-on-dips” cushion,” Bharti said.
However, Bharti added that negative catalysts persist, including a resilient dollar and higher-for-longer interest rate rhetoric, exacerbated by sticky inflation from rising crude prices and selective central bank selling.
Bharti said strategic investors should prioritise gradual accumulation over aggressive buying while the market searches for a definitive bottom.
“While a recovery toward ₹1,48,500– ₹1,54,000 remains likely if support holds, a move below ₹1,42,000 would signal further technical weakness. Monitor the rupee closely as any further depreciation will add a premium to MCX gold, providing a domestic tailwind even if global spot prices move sideways,” said Bharti.
Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, also believes aggressive buying at current levels is not ideal.
“Real yields remain range-bound, while expectations of a pause in US rate tightening could limit further dollar strength. Continued central bank buying and geopolitical risks provide underlying support. The correction has improved entry levels, but this is not a momentum-driven phase. Traders should wait for dips toward support zones rather than chasing prices near resistance,” said Trivedi.
“A staggered approach offers better risk-reward. The buying zone for gold is ₹1,30,000– ₹1,25,000, while additional accumulation can be done near ₹1,20,000,” Trivedi said.
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