Gold rate today: Following the resilient and renewed fear of inflation, driven by the soaring crude oil prices, across the world witnessed sharp selling last week. After hovering around the ₹1,60,000 levels at the beginning of the , the MCX gold rate received a heavy beating last week and finished at ₹1,44,825 per 10 gm, whereas the ended at $4,574.90 per troy ounce.
According to market experts, the gold rate today is navigating a complex macro environment in which geopolitical escalation and expectations of monetary tightening are pulling in opposite directions. They said that the downtrend in the precious yellow metal may continue, and the gold rate in India may touch ₹1,27,000 per 10 gm and $4,250 per ounce in the international market.
Intensifying the US-Iran war
Pointing to the impact of the US-Iran war, Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, said that intensifying conflict in West Asia, particularly Israel’s strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field and Iran’s retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure across key Gulf nations, has significantly elevated global energy risk premiums. This has triggered a sharp surge in crude oil prices, raising concerns of imported inflation globally, especially through higher fuel and logistics costs.
Cautious to hawkish central banks
Highlighting the reason gold prices have remained sideways to negative during the US-Iran war, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said that gold rates today are sideways to negative despite the ongoing US-Iran war. This is because the market is estimating an inflation challenge for the global central banks. He said that rising crude oil prices are expected to fuel global inflation, and in that case, central banks will have no choice but to either raise interest rates or keep them steady. This was evident last week, when the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of England signalled a cautious-to-hawkish approach to interest rates.
“The global central banks have adopted a more cautious and, in some cases, hawkish stance. The U.S. Federal Reserve has acknowledged that the inflationary impact of the conflict remains highly uncertain, prompting a recalibration of rate expectations for 2026. While markets had earlier priced in rate cuts, the narrative has now shifted toward “higher-for-longer” interest rates, with even a possibility of rate hikes if inflationary pressures persist,” said Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet.
The SS WealthStreet expert said that other major central banks, including the ECB, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England, also appear to be leaning toward tighter monetary conditions.
Resilient US dollar rate
Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet said the evolving interest rate outlook has strengthened the US dollar index, which has rallied sharply from around 95.50 to above 100 levels in recent weeks. The stronger dollar, coupled with rising U.S. yields, has weighed on gold prices, despite heightened geopolitical risks.
“Additionally, the recent correction in global risk assets has triggered margin calls and liquidity-driven selling, leading to long liquidation in gold. From a technical standpoint, gold appears to be transitioning into a corrective consolidation phase, following the sharp spike witnessed post the geopolitical escalation,” Sugandha added.
Gold price outlook
Expecting the bears’ grip to continue further, Jateen Trivedi, VP Research — Commodity & Currency at LKP Securities, said, “The broader sentiment continues to remain weak, as key macro triggers are still unfavourable. Interest rates are expected to stay elevated, while ongoing geopolitical tensions are keeping crude prices firm, sustaining inflation concerns and limiting upside in gold. Overall, gold is likely to remain weak with heightened volatility, with a near-term trading range seen between ₹1,40,000 to ₹1,47,000.”
Sugandha Sachdeva of SS Wealth believes gold prices may remain under near-term pressure amid a resilient U.S. dollar, elevated bond yields, persistent inflationary concerns driven by rising crude oil prices, and diminishing expectations of an aggressive US Fed rate cut.
“On the international front, prices are facing a stiff resistance in the $5,420–$5,450 per ounce zone, while a sustained move above $5,280 per ounce remains critical to revive the broader uptrend. Failure to reclaim these levels could keep prices under pressure, with downside risk extending towards the $4,250 per ounce mark,” Sugandha Sachdeva said.
Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet said that the MCX gold rate today is encountering strong resistance near ₹1,70,000 per 10 gm, with ₹1,65,000 acting as an important near-term pivot. As long as prices remain below these thresholds, the bias is likely to remain corrective, with potential downside targets at ₹1,35,000 and ₹1,27,000 per 10 gm.
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