Gold rate today: Despite de-escalation in the US-Iran war, the MCX opened with a gap down at ₹1,38,411 per 10 fm and touched an intraday low of ₹1,36,762, logging around 2% intraday loss on Tuesday. In the international market, the COMEX had a weak opening during the early morning session in the Asian markets today. The COMEX gold rate is currently around $4,375/oz, nearly 1.5% below yesterday’s close.
According to market experts, the gold price today is under pressure despite the de-escalation of the , as the market expects the US Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term, given persistent inflation fears stemming from the devastation of oil infrastructure in the Middle East. The market is estimating that central banks worldwide will offload their gold reserves to contain inflation, which will hit demand amid the market’s oversupply.
Why is the gold price falling today?
On why the gold price is falling despite the de-escalation in the US-Iran war, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said, “Despite de-escalation in the US-Iran war, the US dollar is strong because inflation concern is still there. This is due to the devastation of oil infrastructure in the Middle East. Despite the de-escalation in the Middle East crisis, recovery will take time, and the market believes that the US Federal Reserve and other Central Banks may not cut interest rates in the near term.”
The SEBI-registered expert said that the US Fed and other central banks may offload their gold reserves, which they have accumulated to counter Trump’s tariffs. That’s why gold prices are falling despite the de-escalation in the US-Iran war.
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research — Commodity & Currency at LKP Securities, believes the decline is largely driven by rising inflation risks, which are altering expectations around the rate-cut cycle, with markets now pricing in a more prolonged, higher-interest-rate environment. Additionally, persistent geopolitical tensions in Western Asia are keeping crude prices elevated, further reinforcing inflation concerns and weighing on gold sentiment.
“Despite gold’s traditional safe-haven appeal, the current macro setup—strong dollar and higher yields is exerting downward pressure on prices,” the LKP Securities expert said, adding, “From a technical and macro perspective, downside levels of $4000 and $3600 remain open in the short term. However, if there is any meaningful de-escalation in geopolitical tensions and clarity on rate cuts, gold could witness a sharp recovery, with $5,000 not ruled out on the upside.”
Outlook for the MCX gold rate today
On the outlook for the MCX gold price today, Anuj Gupta said the MCX gold rate today is in a broader range of ₹1,28,000 to ₹1,40,000. On breaking above ₹1,40,000, we can expect the precious metal to touch ₹1,45,000 and ₹1,50,000 per 10 gm levels. On the downside, on breaking below the ₹1,28,000 level, we can expect the gold prices in India to come close to the ₹1,20,000 per 10 gm levels.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.