Gold-silver ratio: The , a key gauge used by commodity market investors, has been in an uptrend over the last two months, tracking a steeper fall in silver prices as against gold.
Both are down from record highs as the crisis in the Middle East fanned inflation fears amid a crude oil spike, drove the US dollar higher and brought out the possibility of higher for longer . US spot gold prices are up just 1.8% YTD, and US spot silver prices have lost 8% even as a full-blown war rages between the US and Iran.
“One look at technicals for gold and silver prices reflects that war and geopolitical risk were already priced into valuations of precious metals, with a frenzied rally seen in gold and silver over the last 1.5 years,” said Karan Aggarwal, Co-founder & CIO, Ametra PMS.
What is gold-silver ratio?
This ratio compressed from over 100 in April 2025 to below 45 by early January 2026 on the back of silver’s 135–150% outperformance, before snapping back to 66 in March.
The gold-silver ratio is calculated by dividing the price of an ounce of gold by an ounce of silver. The current price of gold is around $4424, and silver is $70.01, resulting in a gold-silver ratio of 63.18.
Traditionally, once the gold-silver ratio reaches a range of 40-50, precious metals take a breather till the gold-silver ratio reaches 80 again, with historically silver falling by nearly 60% from the peak while gold incurring losses of 30% from the last peak, suggested Aggarwal.
What does the current gold-silver ratio signal?
According to experts, the current setup suggests that the gold-silver ratio is expected to trend higher in the short-term. This bodes well for the gold prices, as when the ratio rises, it signals outperformance of gold vis-à-vis silver.
Nirpendra Yadav, Sr. Commodity Research Analyst at Bonanza, said structurally, the ratio is still near the lower end vs history (40–60 range), which means in the short-term (1–3 months), the ratio is likely to move up, with gold being stronger than silver). While in the medium term (6–12 months), he expects the ratio to likely fall, signalling the resumption of silver catch-up trade.
In the near term, Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS, expects the ratio to drift toward 70–75 if the Hormuz disruption persists and global manufacturing PMIs weaken further. “A sustained move back below 60 would require either a ceasefire-driven risk-on rally or a sharp acceleration in physical silver offtake from the solar supply chain, neither of which is imminent.”
Since the near-term outlook suggests a rise in the ratio, analysts recommend accumulating .
“Going by historical precedents, the long-term bull cycle is still intact, and investors must remain hold on their gold investments and start active accumulation for gold investments once the gold-to-silver ratio moves into the late 70s. In the short term, pressure on would continue till gold-silver ratio reaches 75. For silver, the gold-to-silver ratio needs to reach around 100 for the onset of the next breakout move,” opined Aggarwal.
He believes that any dip below $4000 for gold and $50 for silver represents decent entry points.
Meanwhile, Dasani believes that the gold-silver ratio at 63 is sitting in a peculiar no-man’s land — technically near equilibrium against the 20-year mean of roughly 70, yet arriving here through a violent route rather than a gradual normalisation.
He believes the current ratio levels, silver is no longer the screaming bargain it was at 100-plus, but it is not expensive either. In the ongoing macro regime, he said gold deserves a larger allocation.
“Gold’s role is singular and unambiguous: it is a monetary hedge, a central bank reserve asset, and a flight-to-safety instrument., by contrast, is a schizophrenic asset — half precious metal, half industrial commodity — and in a world where the Strait of Hormuz is shut, oil is above $110, the Fed is holding rates at 3.50–3.75% with a hawkish bias, and global growth forecasts are being slashed, that industrial half becomes dead weight,” he added.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.