HDFC Bank shares decline as analysts split on growth outlook despite steady Q3 results

shares fell 0.91 per cent to ₹922.60 on Monday morning, declining from the previous close of ₹931.10, as analysts offered mixed views on the lender’s third-quarter performance despite reporting an in-line profit of ₹18,654 crore, up 11 per cent year-on-year.

The stock touched an intraday high of ₹936.15 and low of ₹919.50, with trading volume reaching 117.31 lakh shares valued at ₹1,089.04 crore.

The counter saw selling pressure with 63.53 per cent sellers against 36.47 per cent buyers during morning trade.

Elara Securities upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’ from ‘Accumulate’ with an unchanged target price of ₹1,147, noting the bank has “traversed through tougher transition” following its merger with HDFC Ltd.

The brokerage highlighted that loan growth improved to 12 per cent year-on-year in Q3, with net interest margins expanding 8 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 3.35 per cent, supported by better liquidity and regulatory changes.

However, JM Financial downgraded the rating to ‘Add’ from ‘Buy’, revising the target price downward to ₹1,050 from ₹1,160.



The brokerage cited concerns over the bank’s ability to achieve management’s guidance of 85-90 per cent loan-to-deposit ratio and 100 basis points higher-than-system credit growth in FY27.

“Full normalisation still some time away,” JM Financial stated, applying a 15 per cent discount to ICICI Bank due to relatively lower growth and return on equity.

The quarter saw the credit-to-deposit ratio rise to 98.7 per cent from 98.2 per cent a year ago, as deposit growth of 11.6 per cent lagged loan growth.

The bank’s liquidity coverage ratio declined to 116 per cent from 120 per cent in the previous quarter. Management reported an ₹8 billion impact from transition to new labour codes and released ₹10.4 billion in contingent provisions related to a large borrower group.

SBI Securities maintained an ‘Open Call’ with a target of ₹1,110, while IDBI Capital kept its ‘Buy’ rating with a revised target of ₹1,078. Asset quality remained stable with gross non-performing assets at 1.24 per cent and net NPAs at 0.42 per cent.

Management reiterated expectations to outpace system credit growth of 12-13 per cent by 200 basis points in FY27, while targeting reduction in the loan-to-deposit ratio to 90 per cent by FY27 through accelerated deposit mobilization and calibrated branch expansion.

Source

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