Gold rate today: have witnessed a significant rally in last couple of years, surged nearly 50 per cent in just one year, outperforming Nifty index and other major indices.
This parabolic rally has been driven by multiple factors, including aggressive central bank purchases, rising geopolitical tensions, trade-related uncertainties, a weakening dollar index, concerns over a potential economic slowdown, and strong inflows into ETFs.
“The overall outlook for gold remains bullish, supported by continued safe-haven demand amid the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict. A recent statement by U.S. President Trump, suggesting Ukraine could reclaim lost territory, has raised concerns of fresh escalation. Additionally, the U.S. government shutdown, the first in seven years, could delay key economic data releases such as ISM and Non-Farm Payrolls, creating uncertainty and potentially supporting gold prices,” said Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst – Commodities, Axis Securities.
On the geopolitical front, post-Operation Sindoor, rising tensions between India and Turkey may further boost gold’s appeal, Gaglani added.
“India is actively strengthening ties with Turkey’s regional rivals Greece, Cyprus, and Israel, to counter the emerging alliance of Pakistan, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. Recent joint naval exercises between India and the Greek and Cypriot navies underscore this shift. Any escalation in this could lead to a Global economic slowdown, considering the strategic Geographic location of these regions,” Gaglani said.
India-Turkey conflict: Can gold prices touch ₹1.25 lakh by Diwali?
According to Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, relations between India and Turkey have been strained due to Turkey’s religious mutuality with Pakistan.
While geopolitical tensions like a potential India-Turkey conflict can spark safe-haven demand for , touching ₹1.25 lakh by Diwali appears unlikely without broader global drivers, Trivedi said.
“Key factors influencing domestic gold prices include international gold rates (driven by U.S. interest rates, inflation, and Middle East tensions), the USD/INR exchange rate, and import duties. A depreciating rupee and sustained global risk aversion could push prices upward. However, unless the conflict escalates sharply, gold’s rally will also hinge on Fed rate decisions, ETF inflows, and festive-season demand in India. Additionally, policy measures like duty revisions or restrictions on gold imports could influence retail prices. While ₹1.25 lakh remains an aggressive target, ₹119,000– ₹122,000 per 10 grams is more realistic unless global markets witness a systemic shock,” Trivedi added.
On the other hand, Darshan Desai, CEO – Aspect Bullion & Refinery, said predictions of gold hitting ₹1.25 lakh per 10 grams by Diwali seem a bit overambitious.
“On the domestic front, prices have also been supported by hopes of strong festive season demand and the depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar. That said, predictions of gold hitting ₹1.25 lakh per 10 grams by Diwali seem a bit overambitious. After such a strong rally, prices may enter a consolidation phase or even see some profit-taking at these elevated levels. Any deeper and prolonged global crisis coupled with wide fluctuation in currencies going ahead could fuel buoyancy in gold prices,” Desai added.
Gold outlook in near-term
Deveya Gaglani of Axis Securities further said that any escalation in this could lead to a Global economic slowdown, considering the strategic Geographic location of these regions.
“From a technical perspective, has a strong resistance placed around the $3,900 level. A breakout above this zone may push prices higher towards the magical level, which is around $4,000 and potentially higher. On MCX, we maintain our bullish stance, provided prices sustain above these levels,” Gaglani added.
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