India’s output for the marketing year 2025-26 starting October is set to rebound on favourable impact of 2024 monsoon and expanded cane area.
The expectation is that the sugar output will rise by about 25 per cent over the current year’s production figures.
The USDA Post’s local office in Delhi has projected India’s sugar output to reach 35 million tonnes (mt) raw value for 2025-26, reflecting a 26 per cent rise from the revised estimate of the current year’s 28 mt.
Output in the current year was impacted by El Nino during 2023-24 and limited groundwater resources for irrigation. The output forecast of 35 mt on raw value basis equates to 33 mt of crystal sugar including 60,000 tonnes of khandsari, it said.
2024 monsoon
The increased forecast is attributed to the favourable impact of the 2024 monsoon, which replenished the groundwater and reservoir levels in the key sugarcane producing States of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh.
Last year’s above normal rainfall has facilitated cane area expansion mainly in Maharashtra and Karnataka and the USDA Post expects this to lead to improved yields and sugar output for 2025-26. This significant jump in rainfall contrasts sharply with the previous two years, where drought conditions and pests discouraged farmers from expanding their planting efforts, it said. Sugarcane is a long duration crop in India maturing in 12-14 months.
USDA estimates the planted area for 2025-26 to increase about 9 per cent to 5.85 million hectares (mh) from the previous year’s 5.36 mh.
Output seen up 7%
Total production of sugarcane is expected to rise by around 7 per cent to 465 mt — up from previous year’s 435 mt. Of this, about 370 mt of cane is expected to be utilised for production of sugar, against the previous year’s 341 mt. As sugarcane is a water-intensive crop, the USDA Post expects the higher groundwater reserves will enhance the sugar recovery rate to 9.5 per cent from the current estimate of 8 per cent.
“As such, the percentage of sugar recovered from the sugarcane is expected to grow by 19 per cent from the current season. This expected recovery rate is based on a projected 7 per cent rise in sugarcane production and an 8 per cent increase in sugar utilisation,” it said. Prakash Naiknavare, Managing Director, National Federation of Co-operative Sugar Factories, said the output of sugarcane and sugar would rise by about 20-25 per cent during 2025-26. He said farmers have planted more area under cane and last year’s bountiful rains have resulted in improved reservoir levels.
Also, the government has raised the fair and remunerative price (FRP) in time during April itself, which has given farmers adequate time to decide, Naiknavare said adding that the area will go up. The government has increased the FRP for 2025-26 sugar season to ₹355 per quintal — 4.4 per cent higher than last year.
Trade body ISMA (Indian Sugar and Bio Energy Manufacturers Association) has also projected a positive industry outlook for the 2025-26 season. “ISMA remains optimistic about the upcoming 2025-26 season, backed by favourable weather conditions and improved planting. The 2024 monsoon has enhanced cane planting, particularly in Maharashtra and Karnataka, setting the stage for an on-time start of the crushing season in October 2025.
Cane varieties
In Uttar Pradesh and other northern States, efforts to replace cane varieties are already showing promising results. This is expected to boost yields and recovery rates, contributing to robust sugar production next season,” ISMA had said in a statement in March.
USDA estimates consumption for the upcoming year to touch 31 mt. This is about 5 per cent higher than current year’s 29.5 mt on sustained growth from the food service sector.