Global markets have come under pressure since the Iran war began, with equities falling, oil prices rising sharply and volatility increasing across asset classes.
Dalal Street has been no different. Indian markets have seen sharp swings in recent sessions, as rising prices and to weigh on sentiment.
For investors, the bigger challenge is not just falling markets, but the confusion around what to track. Headlines are changing rapidly, with mixed signals on escalation, oil prices and supply disruptions. This makes it difficult to take clear investment decisions.
In this environment, focusing only on news flow may not give a true picture. Instead, certain real-world indicators linked to oil supply, pricing and trade are offering a clearer view of how the situation is evolving.
India is highly exposed to the current situation. The country imports about 85% of its crude oil needs, and a large part of this supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical global oil routes.
Any disruption in this route can push oil prices higher, increase inflation and impact markets. The ongoing conflict has already reduced tanker movement sharply and disrupted supply chains.
This makes it important for investors to track signals that directly reflect supply and risk, rather than relying only on headlines.
SHIP INSURANCE PREMIUMS
The cost of insuring oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most reliable indicators of risk.
Before the conflict, insurance costs were around 0.25% of a ship’s value. These have now risen sharply to between 3.5% and 10%, with demand falling.
Higher premiums reflect higher perceived risk. A decline in these costs, especially below 2%, would suggest improving conditions and lower disruption.
SHIP MOVEMENT DATA
Another key signal is the number of ships actually crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
Earlier, more than 100 ships passed through daily. This number has now dropped sharply, showing a major slowdown in trade.
A recovery in ship movement towards 30–40 vessels a day would indicate that supply routes are stabilising.
PAPER OIL vs REAL OIL PRICES
There is also a gap between benchmark oil prices and actual prices paid by buyers.
Brent crude, which is widely tracked, reflects market expectations. However, physical oil prices, such as Dubai crude, reflect real transactions.
A widening gap between the two suggests that while headlines may move benchmark prices, actual supply conditions remain tight.
For investors, relying only on benchmark prices may not give a full picture of the real cost of oil.
MID-APRIL SUPPLY RISK
Another important factor is the timeline of temporary supply measures.
Several emergency steps that are currently supporting oil supply are expected to expire around mid-April. These include releases from reserves and policy support measures.
At present, these measures are helping manage a supply gap. If they are not extended, the gap could widen significantly, increasing pressure on oil prices and markets.
Markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term as the situation continues to evolve. Oil prices, inflation expectations and global risk sentiment will remain key drivers.
While headlines may continue to move markets in the short term, these underlying signals offer a more stable way to assess direction.
History also shows that geopolitical shocks often lead to short-term volatility, but reacting only to news flow can lead to rushed decisions.
For Indian investors, where oil plays a key role in inflation, currency movement and corporate earnings, tracking these indicators could help in making more informed decisions.
As markets remain under pressure, understanding what is actually happening beneath the headlines may matter more than the headlines themselves.
(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)