Every month, Mint’s Plain Facts section brings out an update on key global data to thread together the biggest developments in the world that are worth paying attention to. The accompanying analysis and charts explain how each story is creating ripples on the global stage, where it is headed in the coming weeks, and whether it can impact India.
Tough spot
Major central banks are expected to remain cautious in the coming weeks as the war in West Asia has clouded the global economic outlook, with supply disruptions and higher oil prices stoking fears of stagflation.
The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the near future, amid the war fog, trying a balancing act between a possible increase in inflation and a slowdown in growth. The European Central Bank and the have already held rates steady.
RBI held its policy rate at 5.25% to balance growth support and currency pressures, while the ECB maintained rates at 2.15%, though there are expectations of further tightening later this year. Policymakers are grappling with elevated oil prices and supply crunch impacting industrial activity. This has reinforced a wait-and-watch approach. Central bank officials are prioritizing stability, signalling that any shift in rates will depend on clearer evidence on inflation and the broader impact of on growth.
Currency change
In the past year, the world has witnessed two major developments that rattled the entire world: Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs and the war in West Asia.
While both threatened to change the global world order, their impact on the currency movements of different countries varied significantly. A Mint analysis of the first 37 days of both events showed that the Iran war has clearly put all major currencies under significant strain.
During the 2025 tariff period, the market saw a notable divergence where the Euro and Japanese yen actually strengthened against the dollar by 4.73% and 4.13%, respectively, suggesting that trade friction helped strengthen major fiat peers. However, the 2026 is defined by a synchronized decline, with Japan and India, both heavily dependent on oil imports, losing value sharply. The data signals that conflicts are more likely to cause investor pivot toward hard assets than policy-driven disruptions.
Oracle axe
American tech company Oracle Corporation laid off around globally on 31 March, with termination emails reportedly sent without prior notice from HR or direct managers.
The move is among the largest workforce reductions in recent years, with India the hardest hit—accounting for roughly 12,000 job cuts. The decision comes as Oracle pivots toward cloud infrastructure, particularly Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), and artificial intelligence, redirecting resources to compete more directly with Amazon and Google.
The move ranks among the biggest layoff drives in recent years, surpassing Intel’s April 2025 layoffs of about 22,000 employees, according to data from Layoffs.fyi. It also reflects a broader industry trend, with tech firms cutting jobs as they increase spending on AI. More than 40,000 tech layoffs have already been reported in 2026.
El Niño risks
With the world expected to experience El Niño, warm ocean currents that cause more heat, the global temperatures could touch a new high, beating the previous record of 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level in 2024.
These can have multiple effects, ranging from low agricultural activity to overall productivity. Several studies show that higher temperatures are linked with low productivity, and data signals the same.
A Mint analysis of productivity and temperature data showed that countries with warmer average climates tend to have lower output per worker (measured by GDP per hour worked), pointing to structural vulnerability to heat.
If El Niño does develop— as predicted by the World Meteorological Organization by mid-2026—it could bring frequent heatwaves and disruptions to rainfall patterns, including risks to India’s monsoon. Amid the West Asia war, which is already threatening economic activity and food supply due to higher fertilizer prices, the El Niño could add more to economic pressures.