Israel-Iran war: Amid ongoing Israel and US attack on Iran, crude oil prices will remain in focus on Monday, as Iran remains among the top-10 oil producers in the world.
Market experts believe that the on Iran and Tehran’s subsequent retaliatory actions have heightened fears that global crude oil supplies could be seriously disrupted, potentially driving prices much higher than current levels.
US and Israel launched a large-scale military strike on Iran on Saturday. In retaliation, Iran deployed missiles and drones toward Israel and also targeted US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar.
The escalation disrupted commercial aviation across the Middle East, prompting several nations to shut their airspace. It also heightened concerns over global oil markets, particularly regarding potential disruptions to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
“The simmering tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran escalated sharply on February 28, 2026, significantly affecting global energy security and economic stability. Direct military engagements in and around the Strait of Hormuz disrupted vital oil shipments, driving crude prices higher and intensifying volatility across international financial markets. Although the prospect of a prolonged, full-scale war remains uncertain, the situation is currently marked by fragile ceasefire efforts amid persistent strategic tensions,” said Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomerics Ratings.
Oil prices to go beyond $80 per barrel?
According to Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at PACE 360, there would be a limited rise in due to the rising US- Iran war buzz and the US administration may try to address the demand-supply constraints due to the oil supply disruption in Iran by asking Saudi Arabia and Iran to increase their oil output.
Goel explained that Israel’s and the US attacks on Iran will be limited to diffusing Tehran’s military establishment. They may not touch their oil fields as it would hit the oil supply for a longer period, which may lead to a sudden upside in global and US inflation. As the US Congress elections are just nine months away, the US President Donald Trump may not take this risk because it may jeopardise his party’s winning probability, he said.
Further, on the technical outlook, Goel added that the crude oil price may not go beyond $75 per barrel, and the brent crude oil price may not go beyond $80 per barrel.
Meanwhile, Barclays Bank was quoted as saying by IANS that Brent crude prices could climb to nearly $80 per barrel if a major supply disruption occurs, as markets are currently factoring in a geopolitical risk premium.
On the other hand, an Equirus Study said that even partial disruption risk could embed a $20–$40 per barrel geopolitical premium, reopening a pathway toward $95–$110 plus, well beyond the mechanical impact of Iran’s barrels alone.
Both global oil benchmarks — and US WTI — rallied more than 3% in the previous session and may build on those gains when trading resumes on Monday.
US WTI crude futures settled at $67.29 per barrel, up $2.08 or 3.19% in a single session, while Brent advanced 3.4%, or $2.37, to close at $72.87 per barrel.
At present, both Brent and WTI are trading at their highest levels since July and August, respectively.
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