Global jet fuel markets are unlikely to stabilise quickly despite a tentative reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with the head of the International Air Transport Association warning that supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict will take months—not weeks—to resolve.
Jet fuel supply disruption: Why recovery will take months despite Hormuz reopening
Even as the US-Iran ceasefire raises hopes of restored oil flows, the deeper damage lies in refining capacity across the region.
“It will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle East,” said Willie Walsh, director general of IATA.
He added: “I don’t think it’s going to happen in weeks,” underscoring the prolonged nature of the recovery.
Strait of Hormuz reopening impact: Why crude flows won’t fix jet fuel shortage immediately
Oil prices fell sharply after Washington and Tehran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that includes the temporary reopening of the strait.
However, analysts caution that the resumption of crude flows does not immediately resolve downstream constraints.
“Even if you have the flow of crude start again, if you’ve had disruptions in refining capacity, then the problem continues for some time,” Walsh said.
Airfares set to rise: How jet fuel prices will impact airline tickets globally
Jet fuel, the second-largest expense for airlines after labour, typically accounts for roughly 27% of operating costs.
With prices more than doubling during the conflict—outpacing the rise in crude oil—airlines are expected to pass on higher costs to passengers.
“It’s inevitable,” Walsh said.
Airlines adjust routes and capacity as Middle East conflict disrupts aviation network
The war has reshaped global aviation flows, with airlines rerouting flights, carrying extra fuel, and reducing services through affected regions.
While some international carriers have absorbed displaced demand, capacity gaps remain significant.
“There’s no way they can replace the capacity that was provided by the Gulf carriers,” Walsh said.
Global aviation recovery outlook: Why this crisis differs from COVID-19 shock
Industry leaders stress that the current disruption, while severe, is not comparable to the pandemic.
“This is not similar to COVID. This is not a crisis anywhere close to what we experienced (in COVID),” Walsh said.
Drawing historical comparisons, he added: “Post-9/11, the recovery took about four months. In 2008-2009 it was probably 10 to 12 months.”
Refining capacity crunch: How India, Nigeria and Asia could ease jet fuel shortage
Refineries outside the Middle East may help stabilise supply over time, particularly in India and Nigeria.
“There is (refining) capacity available once we get the crude oil flowing, but it’ll take a little bit of time,” Walsh said.
Jet fuel crisis outlook: When will global supply and prices stabilise?
While the ceasefire offers a pathway to recovery, the aviation sector faces a delayed rebound due to structural supply constraints.
For airlines and travellers, the effects of the conflict-higher fares, limited capacity and volatile pricing—are likely to persist well beyond the immediate crisis.
(With agency inputs)