Markets are headed into a stabilisation phase with a cautiously bullish undertone, even as the rupee crashed to a fresh record low and geopolitical tensions over West Asia continue to cloud the outlook. That is the broad consensus from analysts after Dalal Street closed higher for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, with the Nifty 50 rising 196.65 points or 0.83 per cent to settle at 23,777.80, and the BSE Sensex climbing 633 points to close at 76,704.
Markets enter consolidation phase with positive bias
Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, said the market is “transitioning into a stabilisation phase with a positive undertone, rather than a sharp directional rally,” and that “a sustained move above 24,300 could trigger a fresh leg of upside.” He added that the overall outlook “remains cautiously bullish, driven by domestic liquidity, with markets likely to progress through consolidation-led upside rather than a sharp breakout.” Shah identified 23,500 as an immediate support zone and noted that “failure to hold 23,500 may typically signal weakness or loss of momentum.”
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, offered a more guarded read: “In the near term, the market is expected to remain volatile with a mixed bias. Positivity is driven by short covering and value buying, while scepticism stems from uncertainties surrounding the heightened disruptive phase of the West Asia war. At the same time, downside risks appear contained, as deep value has emerged following the sell-off, and the FY27 outlook continues to remain stable.”
Rupee weakness despite positive global cues
The currency’s slide through the 92.50 level was sharp, driven by aggressive importer demand for dollars, thin liquidity ahead of a bank holiday, and persistent outflows, even as crude oil prices softened and global risk sentiment improved. Dilip Parmar, Senior Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, noted that “despite strong risk appetite and softer crude prices, the currency faced aggressive importer dollar demand,” adding that resistance for the USD/INR pair is now seen at 92.85, with support at 92.40.
Global cues and volatility trends shape sentiment
On the equity side, markets extended their rebound on positive global cues. US markets had closed higher overnight, Asian markets held firm through the day, and European bourses opened positively. The India VIX fell 3.3 per cent, signalling a reduction in near-term fear, though analysts cautioned that volatility is likely to persist.
IT stocks lead rally; autos rebound
IT stocks led the charge. Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN) was the top Nifty gainer, surging 4.59 per cent to ₹248.50. Eternal rose 3.46 per cent to ₹242.75, Tech Mahindra gained 3.05 per cent to ₹1,382.70, HCL Technologies advanced 2.79 per cent to ₹1,358, and Infosys added 2.74 per cent to ₹1,266.70. The Nifty IT index rose over 4 per cent on the day.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, pointed out that IT stocks were “further supported by easing concerns around AI disruption,” while the auto sector — which had fallen 9.1 per cent in March — also recovered, with the auto index gaining over 2 per cent, backed by “strong auto registrations in March showing double-digit growth with most segments.”
Broad-based participation with underlying fragility
The broader market joined in. The BSE clocked 3,202 advances against 1,088 declines out of 4,432 stocks traded. The Midcap100 index gained 2 per cent and the Smallcap100 rose 1.6 per cent, indicating wider participation. Fifty-six stocks hit 52-week highs, though 220 touched 52-week lows — a number that underscores the fragility beneath the headline rally.
Select stocks drag, resistance levels in focus
On the losing end, Cipla fell 1.19 per cent to ₹1,266.70, Hindustan Unilever declined 1.10 per cent to ₹2,134.50, Coal India slipped 1.09 per cent to ₹457.20, NTPC dropped 0.94 per cent to ₹379.75, and Sun Pharma eased 0.72 per cent to ₹1,781.50.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said the market “has completed one leg of the pullback rally” and that traders could “see some profit booking at higher levels.” He identified 23,600/76,000 and 23,500/75,700 as immediate support zones, while 23,950–24,000/77,000–77,300 would be the key resistance areas for bulls.
Markets will next track developments in West Asia and crude oil movements, alongside the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and progress on the India-US trade agreement — all of which are expected to set the tone for the week ahead.