Indian markets are likely to open flat on Thursday, after a strong rebound the previous day. After hopes of a truce between Iran and the US, uncertainty still lingers, as both have hardened their stance again. According to analysts, while geopolitical tensions will continue to anchor market movements, the focus will also be on Q4 results of India Inc and their outlook announcements.
Tata Consultancy Services will be the first major company to declare results today. TCS results will also give a broader trend of IT companies.
Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, said Indian markets are likely to open on a flat to mildly negative note, as strong global cues are being tempered by fresh uncertainty around the durability of the recent geopolitical de-escalation. While US markets rallied sharply, with the Dow surging over 1,300 points on easing oil prices and ceasefire optimism, Asian markets are showing mixed trends, reflecting a more cautious tone, he added.
Gift Nifty at 23,985 signals that Nifty may shed about 75 points at open.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said, “Adding to the cautious tone, persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows continue to act as a key overhang. Despite the sharp rally in the previous session, global investors remain selective, suggesting that confidence has yet to fully return.”
India VIX, despite correcting sharply in the previous session, continues to hover around 19, he further said, adding that “this suggests that while panic has eased, uncertainty persists, and option premiums remain elevated. A gradual cooling is possible if bullish momentum sustains, but a sharp drop in volatility is unlikely immediately.”
According to Ponmudi, following the sharp one-day rally, markets appear to be entering a phase of consolidation. “Continued regional developments, including activity around Lebanon, highlight that geopolitical risks remain fluid and unresolved.”
Overall, markets are responding positively to the decline in crude prices, but the lack of strong follow-through buying suggests a measured approach. This does not yet reflect a full risk-on shift, but rather a relief-driven recovery tempered by underlying caution, he further added.
On the derivatives front, according to Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, PCR stands near 1.20, indicating improved sentiment and short-covering bias. “On the options chain, call writing is visible near 24,200–24,500, capping the upside, while the put writing emerged around 23,800 and 23,700, reinforcing the support base. Additionally, India VIX cooled sharply, reflecting easing volatility after recent uncertainty, which may further support the ongoing recovery,” he added.