Fed holds, crude stays high: Nifty edges up as bulls fight back at 22,600

Equity benchmarks opened cautiously on Thursday, October 29, 2026, with the Nifty 50 trading at 22,730.10, up 31.25 points or 0.14 per cent, after closing the previous session at 22,698.85. The Sensex, which had closed at 73,246.03 on Wednesday, opened at 73,268.47 and was trading at 73,388.81, gaining 142.78 points or 0.19 per cent at 9.19 am, as early buyers absorbed overnight global cues following the US Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady.

Gift Nifty had signalled a weak start, trading down 69 points at 22,664 ahead of the opening bell, though the actual market open proved steadier, supported by institutional buying from both foreign and domestic funds. Foreign institutional investors had net bought equities worth ₹871 crore in the previous session, while domestic institutional investors added ₹643 crore.

Adani Ports topped the Nifty 50 gainers list, rising 2.36 per cent to ₹1,802.90 from a previous close of ₹1,761.30, on volumes of over 5.71 lakh shares worth ₹10,220.87 lakhs. TCS advanced 1.56 per cent to ₹2,498.40 against a previous close of ₹2,460, with 2.36 lakh shares worth ₹5,909.60 lakhs changing hands. BSE gained 1.21 per cent to ₹3,527 from ₹3,485, while Power Grid rose 1.13 per cent to ₹254.25 from ₹251.40 on volumes of 3.46 lakh shares worth ₹876.58 lakhs. Eternal added 0.98 per cent, last trading at ₹329.20 against a previous close of ₹326.

On the losing side, Trent fell the most among Nifty 50 stocks, declining 1.46 per cent to ₹2,871.40 from a previous close of ₹2,913.90, on relatively thin volumes of 38,106 shares worth ₹1,097.16 lakhs. Maruti Suzuki slipped 0.94 per cent to ₹11,470 from ₹11,579, with 14,684 shares traded worth ₹1,682.98 lakhs. HDFC Bank shed 0.93 per cent to ₹678.90 from a previous close of ₹685.30 on heavy volumes of over 12.61 lakh shares worth ₹8,585.69 lakhs. Hindalco fell 0.86 per cent to ₹886.05 from ₹893.75.

The US Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75 per cent–4.00 per cent at its latest meeting, but two policymakers voted for a rate hike. The US 10-year Treasury yield continued to hover near 5.02 per cent following the decision. Dr V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, noted that the Fed's hold was..."mildly positive for equity markets, globally," but cautioned that..."from the Indian perspective, the headwinds continue to be strong."

Ankita Pathak, Head of Global Investments at Ionic Asset, described the Fed's stance as a..."calibrated, data-dependent approach," adding that a..."December 2026 hike seems likely, aligning with the dot plot published in the last policy."

Brent crude held near $114–115 a barrel, while WTI traded around $102, keeping energy costs elevated and putting pressure on oil-sensitive sectors including FMCG, chemicals and aviation. Vijayakumar warned that..."with crude remaining elevated for long, trade and current account deficits will widen, leading to depreciation of the rupee and the consequent imported inflation."

Foreign capital outflows remained a concern, with Vijayakumar pointing out that..."capital flight of this magnitude ($31 billion so far in 2026) is impacting India's macros." He also flagged that chip shortage reports extending to 2030 had revived interest in semiconductor stocks in South Korea and Taiwan, meaning..."foreign money will continue to chase AI and AI-related stocks, ignoring India."

Technically, the Nifty remains below key moving averages, with immediate resistance at 22,830–22,900 and support at 22,500–22,600. Bank Nifty, which closed the previous session at 54,267.40, up 292.50 points or 0.54 per cent, faces resistance at 54,600–54,800 and support at 53,800–54,000.

Vijayakumar noted there is..."increasing hope now regarding LTCG tax relief in the coming Budget," describing it as..."no longer a matter of choice," given the scale of foreign outflows. Bank of Canada hiked rates by 25 basis points to 2.50 per cent on oil-driven inflation, while New Zealand's central bank held rates with its governor calling December hike chances "high" — adding to a globally tightening monetary backdrop that continues to limit risk appetite for emerging markets, including India.