Jaishankar likely to meet Rubio on G20 sidelines, but trade deal remains elusive

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar is likely to meet the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio for a bilateral on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Atlanta this week, but any last-ditch push for an announcement on an interim India-US trade deal is unlikely to yield a breakthrough, sources said.

While Washington has been eager to make an announcement on an interim trade pact before the mid-term elections on November 3, a quick announcement is unlikely because of its unwillingness to bridge differences over tariffs and agricultural market access, sources added. The meeting will be their second bilateral interaction this month.

“The US has done all it can to persuade India to agree to an interim pact so that an announcement could come before the mid-term elections. But the terms Washington is currently pushing, whether on tariffs or agricultural market access, are unacceptable to New Delhi. Another meeting between Rubio and Jaishankar is unlikely to yield much on the trade deal unless the US offers better terms,” a source tracking the matter told businessline.

An announcement on the India-US interim trade pact ahead of the elections would have allowed the Trump administration to showcase greater access for American agricultural and industrial goods in the Indian market. However, New Delhi is unwilling to accept terms that could expose domestic producers to greater competition without securing commensurate benefits for Indian exporters in the US market.

Feb framework

The February framework for an interim agreement proposed an 18 per cent reciprocal tariff rate on specified Indian goods in the US, in addition to Indian tariff reductions on a range of American industrial and agricultural products. The farm goods included tree nuts, fruits, soybean oil and animal-feed products. The framework also provided for wider tariff relief on certain Indian exports, subject to the agreement’s successful conclusion.

However, the tariff landscape changed significantly with the US Supreme Court invalidating reciprocal tariffs and the Trump administration now imposing a much lower 10 per cent additional levy under a different legal provision.

As part of the interim pact, India has sought more clarity on the revised tariff regime, a guarantee against additional duties after signing of the deal and assurances that its exporters will not be placed at a disadvantage compared with competitors such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia. New Delhi also wants to protect its farm sector against large-scale opening up.

Rubio is hosting the G20 Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Atlanta on October 30-31. The meeting brings together representatives from the full membership of the G20, which includes Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkiye, the UK, the US, the EU and the African Group.

“Jaishankar is expected to hold bilaterals with some other participating ministers as well, apart from Rubio,” an official said.