Nifty outlook: 200-point opening gain, Reliance results and FII activity in focus
Gift Nifty signals a 200-point Nifty opening gain as Reliance results, auto sales and GST collections lift sentiment; crude oil and US polls remain in focus.
The first trading day of November is set to begin on a positive note for equity investors, with the Nifty signalling a strong opening gain of around 200 points. Gift Nifty is ruling at 23,305 against Friday Nifty futures close of 23,101. Strong results from index heavyweight Reliance Industries (on Friday post-market hours) and robust auto sales figures and GST collections appeared to have lifted sentiment, even as investors drew some encouragement from renewed diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the U.S.–Iran conflict.
Festive demand lifts auto registrations; GST collections remain strong
India’s passenger-vehicle registrations approached five lakh in October, while two-wheelers crossed 23 lakh, as festive demand around Dussehra and ahead of Diwali lifted automobile purchases. VAHAN data, as seen by businessline, showed passenger-vehicle registrations across 14 manufacturers rising 15.1 per cent to 4,98,208 from 4,32,802 in September. Two-wheeler registrations jumped 28.7 per cent to 23,20,139. Goods & Services Tax (GST) collection reached Rs 2.31 lakh crore in October, the second-highest monthly collection on record.
Crude oil prices remain a key macroeconomic concern
However, analysts warn investors about macroeconomic challenges. According to Ponmudi R, CEO - Enrich Money, the macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with crude oil continuing to be a key source of uncertainty for domestic markets. WTI crude remained elevated, climbing above $104 per barrel towards the end of the week, amid renewed geopolitical concerns and risks to regional energy supplies.
US mid-term election
The focus will be on the outcome of the US mid-term election. The U.S. midterm elections on November 3 will determine control of Congress, with all 435 House seats, about one-third of the 100 Senate seats, and numerous state governorships up for grabs in a nationwide vote that weakens or strengthens the President’s agenda, depending on which party prevails.
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Early signs of FII buying offer some encouragement
Dr V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments: “There are indications of FIIs turning towards India. It is too early to say that this is a trend reversal, but early signs are positive. During the last four trading days ending on October 30th, FPIs were buyers on three days in the cash market. Several factors may have triggered this shift.
First, the U.S. Fed holding rates steady is positive for equity markets globally. Second, the valuations in Indian markets, particularly in large-caps, have become very attractive. Third, and perhaps more important, there are clear indications of sustained momentum in India’s economic growth. The surge in credit growth (RBI) is impressive and indicates robust growth ahead. Credit grew by 19.1% in September ( YoY). Credit growth to industry is 19.5%, and to services is 28.3%. Industrial capex also shows signs of improvement. Another factor is the weakening AI trade, globally, he said.
Foreign institutional investor (FII) activity remained a key influence on domestic market sentiment during October, with cumulative net outflows reaching approximately ₹45,160 crore. However, FIIs displayed intermittent buying interest during the month, while the pace of selling moderated in the final week, offering some relief to domestic equities, Ponmudi added.
Q2 earnings and global developments in focus
Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research, Religare Broking, said markets will remain focused on the September-quarter earnings season, key economic data releases and global developments in the coming week. Investors will assess corporate performance for signs of sustained revenue growth, margin resilience and improving demand. Banking results will offer insights into credit growth, deposit mobilisation and asset quality, while automobile, consumer and industrial companies will provide a broader assessment of domestic demand conditions.
Source: BusinessLine Markets
Disclaimer: This article is for general information and does not constitute investment, tax or legal advice. Markets and rates change; please verify with official sources or a qualified professional before you act.
