Nifty 50 Outlook: Indian equity markets were lower on Monday, mirroring the weak tone across global markets as investors turned cautious amid concerns over global growth, geopolitical tensions, and currency volatility.
The slipped 279 points, or 0.33%, to hover near 84,989 in early trade, while the dipped 81 points, or 0.31%, to 25,966. Early moves indicated broad-based pressure as traders awaited fresh global cues and key domestic data releases scheduled for later in the week.
Broader markets also trended weaker, reflecting continued risk aversion. The Nifty MidCap index fell 0.40%, while the Nifty SmallCap index declined 0.15%, signalling mild profit-booking after recent gains.
“A major drag on the market continues to be the elusive US-India trade deal which is impacting India’s exports to the US, widening of trade deficit and continuous depreciation in the . On the global market front, a likely scenario is the weakening of the AI trade. Recent AI results in the US indicate earnings stress in some AI companies. If the AI trade weakens, that will be beneficial to India. In brief. the macro construct favours outperformance by India in the EM universe in 2026. But the high market valuations should temper expectations,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.
Analysts expect the market to remain range-bound this week, with bouts of volatility likely across broader indices. Sentiment will continue to hinge on currency movements, institutional flows, and clarity on the India–US trade agreement. Experts believe any formal breakthrough on the bilateral trade front could provide the much-needed trigger for a meaningful market up-move.
Market Strategy
Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking, said the market continues to grapple with a mix of global uncertainties and domestic currency pressures, warranting a more measured approach from investors. He noted that participants should remain selective and tilt toward stability rather than aggressive risk-taking.
“Participants should stay selective and maintain a balanced approach amid ongoing currency volatility and mixed global cues. Large-cap exposure remains preferable, particularly in private banking, automobiles, metals, and pharmaceuticals. Export-oriented stocks may continue to benefit from a weaker rupee, though IT could stay range-bound due to the correction in the Nasdaq Composite. Caution is warranted in mid and small caps because valuations remain elevated and liquidity support has moderated, and traders must avoid chasing stocks facing negative news flow in anticipation of a rebound and instead wait for clear signs of stability before taking fresh exposure,” he said.
Key Events to Watch
This week’s focus will be on domestic macroeconomic data, with Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation and India’s trade balance set for release. Markets will also watch flash readings of the HSBC Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMI for early signals on economic momentum as the year edges toward a close. Any update on the India–US trade agreement will be crucial for market direction.
Global cues remain pivotal as the Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and Bank of England prepare to release policy updates. At home, India’s November CPI print—due later today—is expected to remain within the Reserve Bank of India’s comfort zone, reinforcing expectations of policy stability. Strong domestic institutional investor (DII) inflows continue to cushion volatility even as foreign fund flows remain inconsistent.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said the market may retain a modest positive bias but is likely to remain sensitive to currencies and flows. “Looking ahead, markets are likely to maintain a positive bias but remain sensitive to rupee stability, FII flow trends, and clarity on trade agreements, alongside global cues from the BoJ, ECB, and BoE. India’s November CPI is expected to stay within the RBI’s comfort zone, supporting policy stability, while strong DII inflows continue to absorb volatility. Risks persist from currency fluctuations and global trade uncertainties, but improving earnings visibility and liquidity support offer an encouraging backdrop and effective downside protection.”
Technical Outlook: Nifty and Bank Nifty
After a volatile week, the Nifty attempted a recovery from lower levels. The index hit a high of 26,178 before profit-taking dragged it to 25,693, followed by a rebound that helped it close at 26,046.95. Analysts noted that the return of buying interest near support zones indicates resilience. Nifty continues to trade above the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reinforcing its broader bullish structure.
Amruta Shinde, Technical & Derivative Analyst, Choice Broking, said the market remains upward-biased as long as these averages hold. “As long as Nifty sustains above these crucial moving averages, the broader sentiment is expected to remain constructive and upward-biased. Immediate resistance lies at 26,200, followed by 26,400 and 26,500, while support is placed at 25,900 and then 25,800. A break below 25,700 may attract further selling pressure, and given the volatility, traders should stick to a buy-on-dips strategy but maintain strict stop-losses to manage sudden swings.”
Key supports for Nifty stand at 25,900–25,700, while resistance levels are positioned at 26,200–26,500. The overall bias remains sideways to bullish.
In , the 58,400–58,800 band serves as a key support zone. A breakdown below this region could push the index toward 57,600, while upside hurdles remain at 60,000–60,500, where a breakout could open the door to renewed momentum.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.