Domestic markets are likely to open on a positive note on Monday, as indicated by trading at Gift City. However, global stocks in the Asia-Pacific region are volatile in early deals.
The coming week is packed with several important developments and data releases, both domestically and globally. “Geopolitical developments will remain the key factor to watch, as their impact on crude oil prices is likely to influence overall market direction,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd. On the domestic front, market participants will closely track key macroeconomic indicators such as WPI inflation, balance of trade data and foreign exchange reserves.
Gift Nifty at 23,356 (at 7 am IST) signals a gain of about 150 points for Nifty at open.
Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research, Ventura, said markets face near-term volatility from sustained FII selling and LPG supply concerns, but DII resilience underscores India’s growth trajectory—strong GDP, capex, and earnings. Focus on banking, infra, and domestic cyclicals for opportunities as global liquidity stabilises.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued net selling in Indian equities. Weekly FII outflows since March 4 have exceeded ₹20,000 crore amid rising oil prices, US rate uncertainties, and global risk aversion, pressuring Nifty and Sensex, said Bolinjkar.
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments, said the weakness in global equity markets following the war in West Asia, the steady depreciation of the rupee and concerns surrounding the impact of high crude price on India’s growth and corporate earnings contributed to the concern of FPIs. “The poor returns from India vis-à-vis other markets – both developed and emerging – during the last eighteen months is the principal reason for FPI’s indifference towards India. If their sustained selling strategy is to change, there should be clear indications of earnings recovery in India. In the present uncertain context, this will take time,” he added.
Now FPIs regard South Korea, Taiwan and China as better markets to invest since they are relatively cheaper than India even after the recent correction. Also, the corporate earnings prospects in these markets appear better than that of India. Therefore, further selling by FPIs in India is likely in the short term, he further said adding that on the positive side, huge selling by FPIs in financials has made their valuations attractive and investable for domestic investors.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said: While oversold conditions may lead to intermittent technical pullbacks, the broader market structure—characterised by lower highs and lower lows, along with the breach of key moving averages and trendlines—keeps the near-term outlook cautiously bearish with elevated volatility.