Equity benchmarks ended Monday’s session in the red, though a sharp intraday recovery from morning lows prevented a steeper fall.
The Sensex closed 702 points lower at 76,847, while Nifty settled at 23,842, down 208 points or 0.86 per cent. The Nifty had opened 460 points lower at 23,589 before buyers stepped in, clawing back nearly 300 points through the session to close near the day’s high.
US-Iran tensions and oil surge weigh on sentiment
The trigger was the collapse of US-Iran talks and President Trump’s order to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which sent Brent crude surging past the $100 per barrel mark — a psychologically significant level with direct implications for India’s import bill, inflation trajectory, and fiscal math. Domestic crude futures jumped over 6.5 per cent, approaching the ₹10,000-per-barrel zone.
Technical view signals resilience despite fall
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, noted that “…the index found support near its 20-day EMA, which acted as a crucial short-term support zone,” adding that Nifty’s bullish recovery candle on the daily chart signals “…resilience and a potential attempt to stabilise after the sharp opening decline.”
Broad-based sell-off across sectors
The damage was broad-based. Every sectoral index closed in the red. Nifty Auto bore the brunt, falling over 2 per cent, with Eicher Motors and Maruti Suzuki among the biggest drags. Higher crude directly pressures auto margins through fuel and logistics costs, while a weaker rupee compounds the pain on imported components. FMCG — typically a defensive — wasn’t spared either, as crude-linked input costs, palm oil prices, and slowing urban consumption squeezed the outlook for companies like HUL and Godrej Consumer. Oil & Gas and IT each declined by more than 1 per cent. Defence and select CPSE stocks were among the rare bright spots.
Selective buying supports recovery
HDFC Life, Adani Enterprises, and ICICI Bank were the top Nifty gainers, signalling selective institutional accumulation even as sentiment stayed fragile. Midcap 100 fell 0.57 per cent, and Smallcap 100 lost 0.46 per cent — broadly in line with the headline indices, though both recovered sharply from intraday lows, suggesting bargain hunting in pockets.
Rupee weakens, volatility spikes
The rupee extended its losing streak into a third straight session, depreciating 65 paise to 93.38 against the dollar — its sharpest single-day drop in a fortnight. The pressure came squarely from a surging crude import bill and safe-haven dollar demand. Technically, the USDINR pair is trading near support at 92.70 and resistance at 93.65. Gold, meanwhile, fell nearly 0.6 per cent, with silver down over 2 per cent on profit-booking.
India VIX surged nearly 9 per cent, breaking above the 20 mark — a signal that options markets are pricing in significantly more uncertainty. Aakash Shah of Choice Equity Broking noted that “…markets witnessed a volatile session with a gap-down opening followed by a strong intraday recovery, indicating buying interest at lower levels,” while cautioning that “…sustaining above immediate support levels and crossing key resistance zones will be crucial to confirm continuation of the bullish momentum.”
Macro concerns remain, but flows offer support
The macro backdrop from SBICAPS’ April EcoCapsule remains relevant: FPIs have withdrawn a record $16.6 billion from Indian markets in FY26, the rupee fell 11 per cent over the fiscal year, and India’s 10-year G-sec yields remain elevated, well above pre-war levels. The RBI held rates in its most recent policy, but SBICAPS believes the door for rate cuts is “now shutting.”
On the bright side, FIIs turned net buyers on April 10, recording inflows of approximately ₹600 crore — a potentially constructive shift if sustained. DIIs continued their steady buying, providing the cushion that prevented a deeper sell-off. Vinay Paharia, CIO at PGIM India Mutual Fund, offered measured optimism: “…the risk-reward is highly favorable for high growth and good quality business, wherein valuation as well as earnings growth both are in favor for long term investing,” noting that large-caps and small-caps are now trading near their longer-term valuation averages. His pointed observation: “…just like you don’t sell a farm because of one bad season, don’t sell great stocks only because of a war.”
Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking cautioned that “…sustaining above this level is critical for any further rebound; otherwise, the bias may turn negative to sideways,” recommending traders “…maintain a cautious stance, focus on stock selection based on relative strength for long opportunities, and prefer a hedged approach to manage risk.”
Key triggers ahead as markets reopen
Markets are closed on Tuesday for Ambedkar Jayanti. When trade resumes on Wednesday, the agenda is packed: India’s CPI print, Q4 earnings season commentary, and above all, any developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Options data shows heavy call writing at 23,900 and 24,000 — clear near-term resistance. On the downside, 23,500–23,600 remains the critical support band. A break there could open the door to 23,300 and 23,000.