Insider trading suspicions around market-moving bets ahead of US President Donald Trump’s Iran remarks refuse to die down — in fact, they appear to be growing stronger.
What began with has now widened, with massive bets in S&P 500 futures also coming under scrutiny, even as the White House has dismissed the allegations.
The latest data suggests that the activity was not limited to one market, but spanned across asset classes, raising fresh questions about timing, positioning and access to information.
The controversy traces back to Trump’s announcement on Monday, where he said the United States and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations” over the previous two days.
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“I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS”
He added that the US would postpone military strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.
Minutes later, at 4.53 pm, Trump posted a corrected version of the same message, fixing errors but retaining the core claim about “productive conversations” and the pause on strikes.
Soon after Trump’s statement, markets moved sharply.
Oil prices crashed as much as 15%, slipping below the $100 per barrel mark, while US equities and global markets rallied.
However, what caught the attention of market participants was not just the reaction — but what happened before it.
According to trading platform Unusual Whales, just minutes before Trump’s announcement:
S&P 500 futures worth about $1.5 billion were bought
Oil futures worth around $192 million were sold
Separately, a Financial Times report noted that about 6,200 Brent and WTI crude futures contracts were traded within seconds before the announcement, with a notional value of roughly $580 million.
The report added that it remains unclear whether these trades were executed by a single entity or multiple participants.
In simple terms, traders appeared to have taken positions that would benefit directly from falling oil prices and rising stock markets — exactly what happened moments later.
The concern is not just about the size of the trades, but their timing.
The bets were placed within minutes of a major geopolitical announcement, at a time when there was no public indication of such a move.
This has raised questions about whether some traders may have had access to information before it became public.
Notably, S&P futures were bought at lower levels just before they surged, while oil was sold at higher levels before prices dropped sharply.
India Today could not independently verify these trading reports.
The situation became more complicated soon after.
Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf denied that any talks had taken place with the US.
“No negotiations have been held with the US,” he said, adding that “fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets.”
This contradiction between Trump’s claim and Iran’s denial has become central to the debate.
If no talks were underway, it raises further questions about what exactly triggered the trades — and what information the market was reacting to.
The White House has pushed back strongly against the claims.
Spokesperson Kush Desai said, “The White House does not tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off insider knowledge.”
He added that any such suggestion without evidence is “baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
As per media reports this is not an isolated case.
Ahead of earlier developments in the conflict, including US-Israel military action in March, similar unusual bets were seen on prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
Those trades had also raised questions about timing and access to information.
For now, there is no evidence of wrongdoing.
But the combination of large trades, precise timing, cross-market positioning, and conflicting geopolitical signals has kept the spotlight firmly on market activity ahead of Trump’s announcement.
What started as a single set of unusual oil trades has now expanded into a broader pattern, one that continues to raise uncomfortable questions about how markets move, and who may be moving ahead of them.