Shares of Reliance Industries traded largely flat in Friday’s session even as brokerages highlighted potential earnings upside driven by strength in the oil-to-chemicals business amid ongoing geopolitical disruptions.
The stock traded at ₹1,396.10 on the NSE at 10.18 am, near its day’s high of ₹1,399.50. It opened at ₹1,385.20 from the previous close of ₹1,392.20.
Domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services said geopolitical tensions could act as a catalyst for the company by tightening global refining and petrochemical markets. It noted that disruptions such as a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, refinery outages, export restrictions in China and a surge in crude freight rates have significantly lifted refining margins.
According to the brokerage, gasoil, gasoline and jet fuel cracks have risen sharply in March 2026 to date, while polyethylene and paraxylene prices have increased 10–15 per cent month-on-month. It believes that even if geopolitical tensions ease, supply-chain normalisation could take longer, keeping product cracks elevated and supporting Reliance’s refining and petrochemical margins.
Motilal Oswal estimates that if disruptions persist through the first half of FY27, Reliance’s consolidated oil-to-chemicals EBITDA could see an upside of about 8.5 per cent versus its current estimates. The brokerage drew parallels with the period following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when refining margins remained elevated and the company posted strong year-on-year growth in oil-to-chemicals earnings.
It added that petrochemical spreads may expand further as supply constraints lift product prices, while the company’s diversified feedstock mix could help limit cost pressures linked to crude oil. However, it cautioned that any reintroduction of export duties on fuels could cap refining margins and restrict earnings upside.
Motilal Oswal has reiterated buy rating on the stock with a target price of ₹1,750.
Global brokerage Jefferies Group also maintained a buy rating at ₹1,750, citing benefits from West Asia supply disruptions that have triggered a sharp rise in refining and petrochemical spreads.
Jefferies expects elevated spreads to sustain during the period of conflict, supporting stronger margins in the first half of FY27. However, it has trimmed earnings estimates for the telecom business, lowering EBITDA forecasts for FY27 and FY28 due to an expected delay in tariff hikes.
Despite this, the brokerage raised its consolidated EBITDA estimates for FY27 by 2 per cent, led by strength in the oil-to-chemicals segment. It added that the stock is currently trading one standard deviation below its long-term average valuation, indicating limited downside risk amid improving earnings support.