telecom arm Jio Infocomm would be seeking a higher valuation in the range of $140-150 billion ahead of its forthcoming next year and look to boost the average revenue per user (ARPU) through a mix of tariff hikes and higher data usage., sources said.
Analysts said that the company may hike tariffs in early 2026 and its goal would be to take it to ₹220 levels or even higher if feasible.
“Any delay in tariff hike would pose downside risks. We expect FY25-28E revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of approximately 16 per cent/19 per cent/24 per cent, driven by tariff hike flow-through in wireless and acceleration in FWA offerings,” said Motilal Oswal in a note post earnings from RIL.
It has estimating RJio enterprise valuation of ₹12.4 trillion ($141 billion) based on discounted cash flow expected around 13 times the EBITDA of December 2027 estimates.
Reliance Jio did not respond to emails seeking clarification on the information.
In its analyst call RJio clarified that there are no immediate plans for a tariff hike, but Motilal Oswal still estimates the next round of tariff hikes, around 15 per cent or ₹50 per month on the base pack, to start from December 2025. This will be a huge increase for users.
Motilal Oswal raised its FY26-28 revenue and EBITDA estimates by around 1 per cent each, driven by higher net adds in fixed broadband and the corresponding boost to blended ARPU.
A telecom analyst under anonymity said that Jio needs another 5-10 per cent hike before the IPO listing. Over the past year, Jio increased ARPU by ₹15-16 going from ₹195 monthly to ₹211.
Using this trajectory, ARPU may increase ₹6-8 in the next two quarters, said the analyst. This means Jio is more likely to reach an ARPU of ₹225 per month by the first half of 2026 rather than the required ARPU of ₹230 with the current strategy unless they reach ramp up subscriptions.
“Discarding tariff, ramping up data usage and bundles with value added services are the company’s next best bet,” said the analyst.
Meanwhile, an equity expert said Jio could twist one tariff plan deal to achieve the desired ARPU. However, the company could stand to lose market share if the tariff is raised too high.
Earlier, there were media reports of Jio along with another telco had withdrawn its entry-level plan. According to Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) Chairman Anil Kumar Lahoti, the two telcos clarified that that while one of the service provider had withdrawn the entry-level plan, the other continues to offer the plan in its stores.
“We have examined that and we found that competitive plans are already available if somebody wants to buy a low-level entry plan,” said Lahoti.
Higher ARPU would need to be substantiated with a good subscriber base to justify valuation, said the equity analyst. Since the company is unlikely to let subscriptions take a hit, they may look at other channels like B2B solutions, etc.
Still, higher mobile tariffs and faster growth in home broadband business should support ARPUs, said Jeffries in its report.
“We lower our ARPU assumptions by 1 per cent and expect Jio’s ARPU to rise at 11 per cent CAGR to ₹272 over FY25-28, led by three tariff hikes of 10 per cent each in 3QFY26/27/28,” it said.