The opened 21 paise weaker on Thursday amid heavy FPI selling pressure in the equity markets and the surge of crude oil price to over $100 a barrel in the wake of intensifying West Asia conflict.
Opening at 92.25 per USD against previous close of 92.04, the rupee so far has tested an intraday high/low of 92.25/92.3650. Currently, it is trading at 92.3050 per USD, according to CCIL.
According to DSP Netra report, every $10 increase in crude prices adds roughly $12–15 billion to India’s annual import bill. It noted that if crude prices were to rise towards $120 per barrel and sustain through FY27, India’s oil trade deficit could surge to nearly $220 billion, pushing the current account deficit above 3.1 per cent of GDP.
“Historically, such episodes have led to rupee depreciation of over 10 per cent, alongside higher inflation and tighter liquidity conditions. This makes crude oil arguably India’s largest macro variable outside domestic policy control,” the report said.