The Rupee recorded one of its biggest single day falls in recent times, sinking 108 paise against the US Dollar and weakening well past the 93 mark, as hardening crude oil prices due to the ongoing West Asia War, FPI-related outflows from the equity markets and a strong Dollar weighed on it.
The Indian currency (INR) closed at an all-time low of 93.71 per USD against the previous close of 92.63. Opening weaker at 92.89, INR tested an intraday high/low of 92.88/93.7575.
The last time the Rupee fell by more than 100 paise was on June 4, 2024. Then the INR crashed about 139 paise.
V Rama Chandra Reddy, Head – Treasury, said the sharp depreciation of the Rupee is a reflection of significant deterioration in global risk sentiment.
“The currency came under pressure primarily due to heavy FII outflows and a sharp surge in crude oil prices, which have climbed to around $118 per barrel, driven by the escalating crisis in West Asia.
“The situation continues to worsen, with increasing reports of damage to critical oil infrastructure in the Gulf region. If the conflict persists for an extended period, the implications for the global economy and particularly for India, could be severe, potentially exceeding the impact witnessed during the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic,” he said.
Abhishek Goenka, Founder & CEO, IFA Global, observed that the Rupee’s downward movement was entirely due to the surge in energy prices.
He said there is a threat to energy supply (both Brent as well as LNG) as war escalates and as production sites are being targeted.
“The attack of South Pars, one of the major gas fields in the region sent energy prices soaring. Brent had touched about USD 118 per barrel yesterday and Rupee was at 93.30 in offshore.
“However, overnight Brent came off to $105 per barrel resulting in USDINR opening below 93. Brent then began moving higher again, and Rupee weakened tracking the move in Brent,” Goenka said.
Reddy noted that RBI appears to be actively intervening to contain excessive volatility in the currency, while prudently conserving its reserves to respond to further escalation, depending on how the crisis unfolds.
“Given the uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical developments, the trajectory of crude prices remains highly unpredictable. Consequently, the Rupee may continue to remain under pressure, with limited visibility on near term levels. While last year’s depreciation provides some context, a similar magnitude of decline may not materialize unless the conflict prolongs significantly,” he said.