Silver’s strong run in 2025 is getting fresh legs from heavy inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and renewed official sector interest. Global silver ETFs and ETPs have attracted robust investments this year, including a $40 million allocation by the Saudi Central Bank. Russia has also announced plans to purchase $535 million worth of silver for its state reserves over the next three years.
On the domestic front, silver imports crossed 3,000 tonnes in the first half of 2025, underlining demand momentum. The flows come on top of about 40 per cent year-to-date rally in prices, supported by both haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and rising industrial usage, says Motilal Oswal Financial Services report on Silver Quarterly Perspective (Q3 2025).
The white metal’s dual identity as both a monetary and industrial metal is reflected in its high correlation with gold (81 per cent) and copper (75 per cent) this year. Industrial demand is set to account for nearly 60 per cent of global production in 2025, led by photovoltaic (PV) modules, where China alone exported 127 GW in the first half. Jewellery demand, however, is forecast to decline 6 per cent this year.
5% rise in recycling
Market fundamentals remain tight, with the silver supply/balance expected to stay in deficit for a fifth straight year. This is despite a 5 per cent rise in recycling. Macro cues are also turning supportive for the metal – the IMF has upgraded its global growth outlook, inflation is trending near central bank targets, and expectations are building for a 25 basis point US rate cut in September.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) continues to hold a bullish medium- to long-term stance on silver. Having achieved earlier targets of ₹1,11,111 and ₹1,25,000, the brokerage now sees the precious metal heading towards ₹1,35,000 and eventually ₹1,50,000 on the domestic front, assuming USD-INR at 88.5. On COMEX, silver could test $45 and then $50.
Long-term support levels are placed near ₹1,04,000-1,08,000, with MOFSL recommending accumulation on dips over a 12-15 month horizon.