Stock market news: Rising crude oil prices are anticipated to put pressure on India’s economy, negatively impacting the stock market and raising concerns about inflation, affecting the fiscal balance and the rupee while increasing import expenses for the world’s third-largest oil importer.
Indian stocks are expected to experience a significant decline on Monday, March 9 following a surge of approximately 26% in oil prices during early trading, reaching their highest level since July 2022.
GIFT Nifty futures indicated a value of 23,760, suggesting a 2.8% decrease at the opening for the Nifty 50 compared to Friday’s closing value of 24,450.45.
The escalating conflict between the US and Israel against Iran has raised concerns about reduced supplies and extended disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a sell-off in global markets.
Asian stocks dropped by 4.8%, while futures on Wall Street and European markets also declined, as the inflationary impact of rising crude prices could lead to tighter or increased interest rates globally. Demand for safe-haven assets maintained the strength of the US dollar.
On Friday, the Indian stock market ended sharply lower amid the ongoing US-Iran war, with the benchmark Nifty 50 slipping below 24,500 level.
The crashed 1,097.00 points, or 1.37%, to close at 78,918.90, while the Nifty 50 settled 315.45 points, or 1.27%, lower at 24,450.45.
Market Outlook by Dharmesh Shah, Vice President, ICICI Securities
Indian Equity benchmark was observed shift in regime from Risk-On sentiment to Risk-Off during the week as escalated geopolitical tension weighed on the market sentiment with settling at 24,450, down 2.8%. Further, 18% jump in Crude oil price had a ripple effect on Indian Rupee, that in turn sparked a ~40% spike in India VIX (fear gauge). Amidst this turbulent phase, Defense, pharma stood strong while profit booking was visible in Financials, Oil & gas, Auto and realty space.
Technical Outlook
- The index opened the week with a gap-down, although a mid-week relief rally attempt was witnessed, escalating geopolitical tension weighed on sentiment, leading the index to end the week on a bearish note. As a result, weekly price action has formed bearish candle carrying lower high-low structure, indicating selling pressure at higher levels backed by elevated volatility.
- Going ahead, we expect the bouts of volatility would remain elevated as the geopolitical headline continues to dominate. In the process, Nifty 50 holding 24,300 (on a closing basis) would keep pullback options open towards 25,200 in the coming weeks. Failing which, would result into extension of correction towards key support of 23,900, being confluence of 100-week EMA and rising trendline which has been held since June 2022, signifies strong structural support.
- The Nifty 50 continues to respect its 20 months EMA (placed at 24,300), a level that has held firm on multiple occasions post Covid-lows. Historically, buying near 20 months EMA has yielded ~20% returns in subsequent quarters.
- Since 2014, Indian equities have witnessed 3 major corrective phases, each lasting an average of ~20 months. The current correction, now in its 18th month, appears to be approaching maturity. Historically, such prolonged consolidations have paved the way for direction shift, and we expect the market to gradually transition towards recovery phase in the coming month.
- With current decline, the % of stocks above 50- and 200-days SMA within Nifty 500 universe have once again pulled down to 30% levels. Historically, such contractions in breadth have preceded durable market bottoms, with extreme bearish readings in the range of 15-20%.
- Last four decades there have seen six major geopolitical escalations. Each occasion formed a major bottom once the anxiety around the event settles down. Though geopolitical events remain unsettled, portfolio construction during such phases has historically been fruitful from medium term perspective, delivering double digit returns in subsequent three months.
Key Monitorable
a) Brent Crude Oil: Sustenance above the falling trend line breakout confirms trend reversal amid geopolitical uncertainties. Going ahead, any de-escalation on the geopolitical front would result into cool-off in crude oil prices. Else, extension of move towards $92.
b) US & India Inflation print
Stocks To Buy This Week – Dharmesh Shah
Dharmesh Shah of ICICI Securities recommends buying Ltd.
Buy Astra Microwave Products in the range of ₹1,005-1,035. He said Astra Microwave share price target of ₹1,145 with a stop loss of ₹944.
Disclaimer: The Research Analyst or his relatives or I-Sec do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company, at the end of 06/03/2026 or have no other financial interest and do not have any material conflict of interest.
The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.