share price extended its winning streak for the fifth consecutive session on Tuesday, October 28, gaining 3% to hit a new 52-week high of ₹182 apiece as the stock’s upward momentum remained intact, supported by a series of bullish brokerage outlooks, with Motilal Oswal joining the list of firms.
The domestic brokerage firm, in its latest note, has upgraded its rating on the stock to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral,’ with an SOTP-based target price of ₹210 per share.
It turned bullish on the stock for the following four reasons:
- Improved realizations: The brokerage said Tata Steel is set to benefit from improving steel price realizations. To protect against rising imports, the Indian government has proposed a 12% safeguard duty on flat steel products, which is expected to help domestic operations achieve better realizations.
- Recovery in European business: Tata Steel’s European operations are moving toward breakeven amid restructuring and cost optimization. EBITDA losses have narrowed from USD 76/t in 2QFY25 to an USD 8/t EBITDA gain in 1QFY26, aided by lower energy costs and improved efficiency.
- Growing domestic steel demand: India’s steel demand is projected to grow by around 8–10% over FY26–27, backed by a robust demand environment, policy support, and an ongoing recovery in industry fundamentals.
- Aggressive capacity expansion: To meet growing demand, Tata Steel is aggressively expanding its capacity, targeting an increase from 26.5 MTPA in FY25 to 40 MTPA by FY30.
Against the backdrop of an expected rise in realizations, the brokerage expects the company to generate a strong operating cash flow (OCF) of ₹957 billion, which will help fund the ongoing and planned expansion of ₹160 billion annually without leveraging the balance sheet.
Net debt stood at ₹848 billion as of 1QFY26, which includes cash of ₹141 billion. This translates into a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 3.21x as of June 2025.
InCred Equities double upgrades the stock
On Monday, InCred Equities upgraded its rating on Tata Steel to ‘Add’ from ‘Reduce’, viewing the company as a leveraged play on India’s industrial upcycle and Europe’s post-war reconstruction boom. The brokerage also revised its target price higher to ₹224 apiece.
According to the brokerage, Tata Steel is poised to benefit from a major steel demand revival in Europe as the Russia-Ukraine war approaches a negotiated conclusion and large-scale reconstruction spending begins.
With the US and the EU tightening sanctions on Russia’s oil sector and signalling fatigue over the prolonged conflict, a peace settlement appears increasingly likely. The brokerage added that post-war rebuilding, estimated at over US$800 billion, will trigger a long-duration demand upcycle in infrastructure, energy, and industrial manufacturing across Europe.
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