India’s young space startups find themselves in an unlikely Goldilocks zone, as the US-Iran war is driving a surge in demand for space-based surveillance data.
Despite strategic sensitivities, stakeholders believe that geospatial surveillance could soon become a multi-billion-dollar revenue opportunity for firms building satellites, ground stations, and data analytics platforms.
On 18 March, Google-backed satellite imaging startup Pixxel, based in Bengaluru, signed a deal with Neo Space Group (NSG), a commercial entity backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, to provide high-resolution Earth observation imagery and data. Under the agreement, NSG will offer Pixxel’s data to Saudi government agencies as required, the companies said in a joint statement.
This is just one of several deals now taking shape for the country’s space firms.
Anirudh Sharma, co-founder and chief executive of Peak XV-backed space firm Digantara, said in an interview with Mint, the company “has started receiving queries and having conversations with at least two West Asian nations to supply space-based sensing and Earth observation data”.
Speciale Invest and Infosys-backed GalaxEye is in the race for surveillance satellite solution services. Suyash Singh, co-founder and CEO, said the company is ready to launch its Drishti optical and synthetic aperture radar (OpToSar) surveillance satellite this quarter, following which surveillance imaging and data services will commence commercially from July.
“There is certainly a lot of interest, but the number of surveillance satellites that can cater to foreign demand in the current war from India is only in double digits, as compared with the US having hundreds of satellites in orbit,” Singh said.
“We’re launching a 1.5-metre earth observation satellite in about two months, and in anticipation of the future demand based on queries received, have established plans to set up a 0.5-metre resolution satellite constellation of 20 satellites for Earth observation and surveillance constellation by 2029,” he added.
Space race
Space firms are therefore hedging their bets on surveillance satellites, seeking to tap into a global surge in demand for space-based data.
Several factors are driving this shift.
“One of the key factors is that many West Asian nations, including Iran, do not have sovereign satellite capabilities and run very limited and small-scale space programmes. This leads them to rely on US-based or China-based satellites for surveillance data. Given the current geopolitical balance, this allows independent commercial entities like us to cater to demand for space surveillance organically,” Digantara’s Sharma said.
Digantara, also based in Bengaluru, has begun offering satellite orbit maps to agencies in India and the US, which serve as alert systems against opposition surveillance.
Traditionally, space-based surveillance was largely sovereign, with nations including India operating their own satellites. Until India’s space sector was privatized in 2020, only the Indian Space Research Organisation’s (Isro) Cartosat series of satellites were authorized to offer defence-linked surveillance imagery.
However, due to differences in technical capabilities, India, as well as other countries, relied on US-based suppliers of space surveillance data, such as Maxar and Planet Labs. Homegrown startups are now seeking to take on the latter with their own high-resolution satellite data and imaging services.
Projections from India’s nodal space promotions body, Indian National Space Promotion and Authorization Centre (In-Space), expect space surveillance to generate $8 billion in annual revenue for the country by 2033.
A long way to go
Experts, however, said while opportunities are clear, the roadmap may not be straightforward.
While companies building space-based surveillance platforms may see a fillip, the gains are unlikely to be uniform across all space technologies, said Col (retd) Shailender Arya, senior advisor at global strategic advisory firm, The Asia Group.
“It is important to note that space technologies are being fused with artificial intelligence in the ongoing conflict for targeting and decision support functions, particularly by the US. Even as the use of space-based assets accelerates, the current conflict is not a tipping point for space surveillance technologies, as much as it is for counter-drone and ballistic missile defence,” he said.
Indian space firms are also likely to face a geopolitical roadblock before they can offer their products globally, especially in times of conflict, added Chaitanya Giri, fellow at the Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology at the policy think tank Observer Research Foundation.
“Most Indian space firms are expanding their business by betting on the US market, which is the largest for space and defence surveillance products. This creates a conflict, because a company catering to US commercial or government demand will be regulated under the US geospatial shutter control legislations, which restrict how any entity can sell space surveillance data to other countries,” he said.
He emphasized that firms will have to decide whether to follow the US approach before they can reap the benefits of the satellite surveillance push.