Indian stock market: After posting strong gains of over 1% each in the previous session, the domestic benchmark indices — the and the Nifty 50 — resumed their decline on Friday, March 6, as investors booked profits amid ongoing concerns over the US-Iran conflict, a surge in crude oil prices, and continued heavy foreign capital outflows.
The Sensex plunged 1,097 points, or 1.4%, to close at 78,918.90, while the Nifty 50 dropped 315 points, or 1.3%, to settle at 24,450.45.
“Markets ended the holiday-shortened week with steep losses as escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia and a sharp spike in crude oil prices weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Against this backdrop, benchmark indices witnessed broad-based selling pressure. The Nifty declined to close at 24,450.45, while the Sensex settled at 78,918.90, registering losses of nearly 3% each for the week. Market breadth remained weak throughout most sessions, with the indices declining on three of the four trading days as investors adopted a clear risk-off stance,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
Stock Market Outlook next week
According to Ponmudi R, CEO – Enrich Money, the week ahead is likely to remain volatile, with market sentiment largely shaped by persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Investors will closely track global developments, particularly movements in crude oil prices, as energy markets continue to play a critical role in influencing overall risk appetite.
“The escalation of tensions in the region has begun to affect economic activity and disrupt normal trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about potential global supply chain disruptions. As a result, global investors are increasingly wary of the potential impact on broader economic growth, while also grappling with the risk of commodity-driven inflation—creating a complex challenge for monetary policy makers.
In addition, foreign institutional investor (FII) flows and currency movements will remain key variables to watch, as they provide important signals on global capital allocation trends and investor confidence in emerging markets such as India,” Ponmudi said.
Top 5 triggers for the Indian stock market
1] US-Israel-Iran war
In a significant development, Masoud Pezeshkian apologised for firing on regional countries, even as Tehran continues its attacks in the region. He said Iran would not launch attacks or missile strikes on neighbouring nations unless an assault on Iran originates from those countries.
Meanwhile, all flights to and from Dubai have been suspended.
Earlier on Friday, Donald Trump said at the White House that the US is performing “very well” in its operations against Iran. “There’s a lot we’re doing — by the way, in Iran, we’re doing very well. Somebody asked how I would score it from zero to 10. I said, I’d give it a 12 to a 15,” Trump said.
The US President also called for “unconditional surrender” from Iran, as reports suggested that a third aircraft carrier, the USS George H. W. Bush (CVN‑77), was heading to the Middle East amid the escalating Iran war.
2] Crude Oil prices
Mishra of Religare Broking said that in the coming week, movements in global crude oil prices and further geopolitical developments in West Asia will remain critical external variables influencing market direction.
surged on Friday amid rising concerns over potential supply disruptions during the ongoing Middle East conflict, while equity markets declined following weak US hiring data.
The conflict involving the US and Israel against Iran, along with Tehran’s retaliatory strikes across the Gulf region, has disrupted global energy and transportation networks, significantly curbing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The global benchmark Brent North Sea crude climbed to $92.69 per barrel, gaining 8.5% on the day and nearly 30% for the week, after US President Donald Trump stated that only Iran’s “unconditional surrender” would bring an end to the Middle East war.
3] Gold and silver rates
Gold and silver prices advanced on Friday after weaker-than-expected US payrolls data sustained expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, the metal was still headed for its first weekly loss in five weeks, as a stronger dollar limited the upside.
Spot climbed 1.4% to $5,149.14 per ounce, though it remained down 2.4% for the week. Spot silver also gained, rising 2.6% to $84.30 per ounce.
4] FIIs and DIIs
Foreign investors (FIIs) were net sellers of Indian equities worth ₹6,030 crore on March 6. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained net buyers, purchasing shares worth nearly ₹6,972 crore, according to provisional exchange data.
During Friday’s trading session, FIIs bought shares worth ₹14,435 crore but sold equities amounting to ₹20,465 crore. Meanwhile, DIIs purchased shares worth ₹19,662 crore and sold holdings worth ₹12,691 crore.
So far this year, FIIs have offloaded shares worth ₹60,364 crore on a net basis, while DIIs have made net purchases of equities totaling ₹1,28,348 crore.
“FPIs are unlikely to return to the market as buyers until there is some clarity on the outcome of the conflict and decline in the price of crude. Brent crude trading above $90 is bad news for the Indian economy and markets.
The market is now being supported by DII buying and sustained mutual fund SIP inflows. Further correction in the market will make valuations attractive. But strong buying will emerge only when the conflict ends and crude declines,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.
5] Inflation data
According to Mishra, the week will also feature key macroeconomic releases that could shape near-term sentiment. On the domestic front, investors will closely monitor the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data scheduled for March 12, which will provide important insights into price pressures following the recent spike in crude oil prices.
Technical Outlook
Sensex
Ponmudi of Enrich Money said that the index has also witnessed selling pressure in line with broader market weakness and is currently testing important support levels near the 78,800–78,500 zone.
“A sustained break below this region could lead to further downside toward 77,200–77,000. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed near 79,800, where selling pressure has recently emerged.
While participation from select heavyweight stocks may provide intermittent support, the broader structure remains cautious due to global uncertainties. The near-term outlook remains range-bound with a slightly negative bias, with investors likely to prefer selective accumulation on declines rather than aggressive positioning,” he said.
Nifty
Speaking on the Nifty outlook, he added that the index has recently witnessed increased selling pressure after failing to sustain above key resistance levels, leading the index to drift toward important support zones.
Ponmudi noted that the index is currently approaching the 24,400 region. A sustained break below this support could extend the decline toward 24,300–24,200, which has previously acted as a demand zone. From a broader perspective, long-term supports are seen around 21,800 and 18,600, which have historically acted as major support levels.
Bank Nifty
Meanwhile, on the Bank Nifty outlook, he opined that the index has been trading under pressure following weakness in private banking stocks and broader market volatility. The index is currently hovering near the 57,700 support zone, and sustaining above this level is crucial to prevent further downside.
“A breakdown below 57,500 could expose the index to deeper declines toward 57,200–57,000. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed around 58,300–58,500, followed by the key 59,000 psychological level, which needs to be decisively reclaimed to signal a stronger recovery.
Bank Nifty’s long-term support is placed in the 57,500–53,500 zone, which previously acted as a key resistance band and has now turned into a strong support zone. Momentum indicators remain weak, with RSI around 32 and MACD remaining negative, suggesting recovery attempts may remain limited unless stronger buying interest emerges. The near-term bias remains range-bound with a mild negative undertone,” he added.
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