Markets opened under severe selling pressure on Wednesday morning, with the BSE Sensex plunging 1,626.71 points or 2.03 per cent to 78,612.14 by 9.55 am, from its previous close of 80,238.85, after opening at 78,528.82. The NSE Nifty 50 fell 514.20 points or 2.07 per cent to 24,351.50, having closed at 24,865.70 on Tuesday and opened at 24,388.80, as escalating conflict in the West Asia triggered a sharp surge in crude oil prices, rattling investor sentiment across sectors.
Only four stocks on the Nifty 50 managed to post gains — Coal India (COALINDIA), Infosys (INFY), Tech Mahindra (TECHM) and HCL Technologies (HCLTECH) — while the rest of the index bore the brunt of a broad-based selloff.
The geopolitical trigger is the widening Israel–US–Iran conflict, which has disrupted trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude oil prices sharply higher. Brent crude futures for May delivery were trading at $82.17 per barrel, up 0.95 per cent, while WTI crude for April delivery was at $74.96, up 0.54 per cent, as of 9:26 am on Wednesday. On the domestic Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), March crude oil futures were at ₹6,945 per barrel against the previous close of ₹6,970, down 0.36 per cent, while April futures were at ₹6,903 against the previous close of ₹6,925, down 0.32 per cent.
“With the war escalating and crude rising, markets are going into a period of heightened uncertainty,” said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited. “Nobody knows how long this conflict will go on and what will be the extent of the havoc it could wreck.”
For India, which imports around 85 per cent of its oil requirements, elevated energy costs carry significant macroeconomic consequences. Rising crude prices threaten to widen the current account deficit, fuel imported inflation and potentially slow economic growth — a combination that has already begun weighing on equity valuations.
“From the market perspective, the impact of potentially widening trade deficit, depreciating currency, higher inflation and perhaps lower growth is the real issue,” Dr. Vijayakumar added. “If this fear materialises, corporate earnings will be impacted.”
India’s fear gauge, the India VIX, was hovering near 17.13, reflecting elevated hedging activity and choppy market conditions. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a SEBI-registered online trading and wealth tech firm, noted that “persistent foreign institutional outflows continue to weigh on sentiment, even as steady domestic institutional inflows offer a partial cushion.”
On the technical front, the Nifty 50 has slipped decisively below the 25,000 psychological mark. “The 24,900–25,000 band now acts as an important resistance zone,” Ponmudi said, adding that a sell-on-rise strategy is favoured unless a sustained move above 25,300 emerges. Immediate support is seen near 24,600, with deeper cushion in the 24,200–24,000 zone.
Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder of Livelong Wealth, flagged that “the previously created intraday gap between 24,160 and 24,340 is likely to be filled in early trade,” and warned that the index could test the crucial 24,000 support zone if FII selling and global sell-offs persist.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said “for positional traders, 24,600 would act as a crucial support zone. If the market slips below this level, the correction could continue until 24,300,” with further downside potentially reaching 24,000. He identified 25,000 as the key resistance level for bulls.
Among the four gainers on the Nifty 50, Coal India led with a rise of 2.05 per cent to ₹435.00, followed by Infosys, up 1.51 per cent to ₹1,308.30. Tech Mahindra edged up 0.40 per cent to ₹1,350.80, while HCL Technologies gained a modest 0.30 per cent to ₹1,375.10. The IT sector’s relative outperformance comes as a defensive play amid broad market weakness.
The losers’ list was led by Larsen & Toubro (LT), which tumbled 7.12 per cent to ₹3,777.30 from its previous close of ₹4,066.70, emerging as the steepest decliner on the index. Shriram Finance (SHRIRAMFIN) fell 5.52 per cent to ₹994.40, while Tata Steel (TATASTEEL) dropped 5.41 per cent to ₹199.59 — hammered by a toxic combination of risk aversion and global commodity market disruption. IndiGo (INDIGO) shed 4.80 per cent to ₹4,303.50 as aviation stocks came under pressure from surging fuel costs, a direct fallout of the oil price spike. JSW Steel (JSWSTEEL) declined 4.25 per cent to ₹1,213.40.
Sectorally, defence, airlines, tourism, chemicals, and oil-linked stocks are in sharp focus. “These segments are directly exposed to rising crude prices and war-driven disruptions,” Hariprasad noted, flagging heightened caution for options traders given the elevated VIX.
Bank Nifty is tracking broader market weakness, having slipped below its 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages. Immediate resistance is placed in the 60,200–60,500 range, while key support lies at 59,200–59,000, coinciding with the 100-day EMA. A bearish MACD crossover has emerged, with the RSI near 44 — its weakest reading since early February. Ponmudi said domestic institutional investment in banking stocks “may help cushion sharper declines,” but the setup remains vulnerable unless Bank Nifty stages a move above 61,000.
Despite the market turmoil, seasoned investors are being counselled against panic. “Experience tells us that panicking and getting out of the market during uncertain times like these is not the right thing to do,” Dr. Vijayakumar said. “Markets have an uncanny ability to surprise and climb all walls of worries.” He identified banking, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and defence as themes that offer long-term buying opportunities for investors with high risk appetite and a long investment horizon.
Chouhan echoed a similarly calibrated approach: “Buy select stocks, which are fundamentally strong between the 24,300–24,000 range,” even as he acknowledged that “the current market texture is extremely volatile and is expected to remain volatile in the near future.”