soared past key resistance levels to fresh highs on Wednesday, with industry experts and analysts saying the precious metals have more steam to head further north.
Gold topped a new high of $4,000 an ounce in Asian trade on Wednesday morning, before rising further to over $4,035 an ounce at 1300 hours IST. Gold December futures on COMEX ruled at $4,058.77.
topped $48 an ounce to approach the highs seen 14 years ago and was quoted at $48.75. Gold has gained over 53 per cent and silver 68 per cent since the beginning of this year.
‘Taking off like a rocket’
In India, gold rose to a new high of ₹12,000 a gm and silver ruled near ₹1,50,000 a kg. Gold (999 fineness) in the Mumbai spot market was quoted at ₹1,21,180 per 10 gm. On MCX, December gold December futures increased to ₹1,22,709 per 10 gm and silver December futures at ₹1,48,315 per 10 gm.
“Gold has taken off like a rocket. It has got more steam to rise further,” said Amarendran Vummidi, Managing Partner of Chennai-based Vummidi Bangauru Jewellers.
Goldman Sachs outlook
The World Gold Council (WGC), an organisation of gold producers, said there are plenty of reasons for investors to consider gold.
“Among these are: US government frictions, including the shutdown in early October, trade tensions not abating, flailing employment as inflation fears linger and dollar-hedging applying continuous pressure on one of gold’s key drivers,” it said.
The US-based global investment bank Goldman Sachs said spot gold has increased over 50 per cent year-to-date following strong central bank buying, increased demand for gold-backed ETFs, a weaker dollar and growing interest from retail investors looking to hedge against trade and geopolitical tensions.
The investment bank raised its December 2026 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce. In a research note published earlier this week, the bank said that it expects gold to continue gaining further.
Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, said gold can show more upward spikes towards $4,150(₹1,25,000/10 gm). “On the other hand, if gold falls below $3,950 (₹1,20,000), we can say, top has been made, and a correction will follow,” she said.
Skewed to upside
Silver is on the way to touch $50 (₹1,50,000), as its bull run continues. Chainani said that $47 (₹145,000) is strong support. “If prices sustain below this level, we could see more correction or profit booking,” she said.
ING Think, the financial and economic analysis wing of Dutch multinational investment firm ING, said the US shutdown has delayed key payroll data, further clouding an already uncertain economic outlook.
“With official data delayed, traders are relying on private reports for economic insight, while the central bank faces challenges in making monetary policy decisions. Still, markets are pricing in a quarter-point cut this month, which would further benefit gold, as it doesn’t pay interest,” it said.
Goldman Sachs sees risks to its upgraded gold price forecast as “still skewed to the upside on net, because private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market may boost ETF holdings above our rates-implied estimate.”
Dollar oversold
The WGC said October is known for large equity sell-offs, and risks are riding quite high. “Gold is generally a good hedge, but there may be concerns about its ability to respond given how stretched it looks,” it said.
In addition, the US dollar, looking oversold, continues to pose a threat to gold, should a squeeze materialise. “However, our analysis suggests that these concerns are not warranted and that, in the absence of a liquidity crunch, gold’s hedging credentials remain intact,” the council said.
Going beyond these factors, the WGC said central banks have shown a propensity to buy on dips over the past three years. “And so, it seems, have other investors. A mini-intraday gold selloff on September 30 quickly reversed into the close,” it said.
ING Think said central banks are still buying, with the People’s Bank of China extending its gold buying streak in September for the 11th month in a row, despite record high prices.
Investors adding ETFs
Goldman Sachs said central bank buying will likely average 80 tonnes in 2025 and 70 tonnes in 2026. “Emerging market central banks are likely to continue to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar and into gold,” it said.
ING Think said investors are adding gold ETFs at a rapid pace. Last week, gold-backed exchange-traded funds expanded again, taking the total gold ETF holdings to the highest level since September 2022.
“There is still room for further additions, given the current total remains shy of the peak hit in 2020. More inflows could push gold even higher,” it said.
Indian inflows reach $902 in Sept
Augmont’s Chainani, pointing to WGC data, said net inflows into Indian gold ETFs totalled $902 million in September, an increase of 285 per cent from $232 million in August. It was the fourth consecutive month of inflows, and all months of 2025 saw positive traction except for March and May.
The said it was “somewhat confident” that gold will hold its ground and perhaps see further uplift should equities experience a correction, given the plethora of supportive factors elsewhere.
“Perhaps only a major liquidity squeeze could upend both gold and equities, but there are no clear signs of fractures in credit or banking sector yet,” it said.