The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open sharply lower on Thursday, tracking weakness in global markets, amid worries about the rising crude oil prices.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a gap-down start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,240 level, a discount of nearly 536 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
The escalating US-Iran war and the attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf region sent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel. Investors sentiment also dampened after the kept interest rate unchanged and warned that surging energy prices could stoke inflation.
On Wednesday, the Indian stock market ended higher, extending its rally for the third straight session, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing above 23,700 level.
The surged 633.29 points, or 0.83%, to close at 76,704.13, while the Nifty 50 settled 196.65 points, or 0.83%, higher at 23,777.80.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex formed an uptrend continuation pattern on intraday charts and a bullish candle on daily charts, indicating a further uptrend from the current levels.
“We are of the view that Sensex has completed one leg of the pullback rally, and we could see some profit booking at higher levels. For day traders, buying on intraday dips and selling on rallies would be the ideal strategy. On the downside, 76,000 and 75,700 would be the immediate support zones for , while 77,000 – 77,300 could act as crucial resistance areas for the bulls,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
However, he believes below 75,700, the sentiment could change, and if Sensex falls below this level, traders may prefer to exit their long positions.
Nifty Options Data
In the Nifty derivatives segment, significant call writing was observed at the 23,800 strike followed by the 23,900 strike, while notable put writing was seen at the 23,700 and 23,600 strikes.
“Considering the ongoing geopolitical tensions, traders are advised to remain cautious near the key support and resistance levels and wait for a clear breakout on either side before initiating fresh directional trades,” said Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 formed a reasonable long candle on the daily chart with a minor upper shadow.
“Technically, the upside bounce of the last three sessions confirms a short-term bottom reversal pattern at the recent swing low of 22,955. This is a positive indication. After the formation of bearish lower tops and bottoms on the daily chart over the last one month, Nifty 50 is witnessing a sharp bounce back from the lows that signals chances of higher bottom formation during any short-term consolidation or dip” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, further sustainable up move from here could open the next upside target of around 24,000 – 24,200 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 23,550.
Vishnu Kant Upadhyay, AVP – Research Advisory, Master Capital Services noted that the 23,850 – 24,000 zone continues to act as a strong resistance band, and historically this range has repeatedly acted as both a key support and resistance area, making it technically significant.
“Additionally, the heavy concentration of call writing around these levels is capping the upside and limiting the sustainability of the ongoing rally. If surpasses the 23,850 level convincingly, the index may gradually move towards 24,000, followed by the 24,200 – 24,300 zone, where the 21-day EMA is positioned,” said Upadhyay.
According to Mayank Jain, Market Analyst, Share.Market, Nifty 50 index has shown a strong ‘piercing line’ reversal from Monday’s lows and is now trading above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
“Immediate support for Nifty 50 lies at 23,500 – 23,600 zone, which previously was a resistance, and has now turned into a support floor. A break below 23,400 would weaken the current recovery. Immediate resistance is at 23,850 – 24,000 levels. Reclaiming the 24,000 psychological mark is the main task for bulls. Crossing 24,250 would trigger a major short-covering rally,” said Jain.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 450.05 points, or 0.82%, higher at 55,326.05 on Wednesday, forming a bullish candle with a higher high and a higher low, indicating an extension of the pullback.
“For Bank Nifty, the immediate resistance is placed in the 55,600 – 55,700 zone. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its pullback towards 56,000, followed by 56,300 in the short term. On the downside, the 55,000 – 54,900 zone is likely to act as a strong support,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities noted that the current recovery in is bringing prices back above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level placed near 55,240. The Bollinger Band indicates the index is recovering from the lower band and moving back within the band range. However, it continues to trade below the mid-band.
“After slipping into oversold territory recently, the RSI has moved up toward 35, indicating a gradual recovery in strength. On the hourly chart, the Bank Nifty index is showing continuity of the short-term trend, with the recovery likely to continue as long as 54,750 is protected on a closing basis. On the downside, a break below 54,750 may weaken the ongoing recovery and bring back pressure,” said Mehra.
Overall, he believes the current move reflects a short-term recovery, while the broader trend remains corrective.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.