Nifty 50-gold ratio: After hitting below 1.50 last week, the witnessed improvement and came close to 1.60. This could become possible after a rally of around 250 points in the index and a dip in the gold prices from around ₹1,55,000 per 10 gm to around ₹1,47,000 per 10 gm this week.
According to experts, both gold and equities are moving in step these days, as both assets are tracking the US dollar and oil prices. They maintained that rising US dollar rates have capped the gold price rally despite the uncertainty caused by the US-Iran war. Similarly, equities came under selling pressure as oil prices surged after the Strait of Hormuz closure, renewing inflation fears and fueling buzz about weak quarterly results from companies.
What Nifty 50-gold ratio signals?
Explaining the Nifty-gold ratio, Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at PACE 360, said that the pivot point for the Nifty-gold ratio is 2.50. If the Nifty-gold ratio is below 2.50, then generally people buy equities. Similarly, when the Nifty-gold ratio is above 2.50, one buys gold. However, one must remember that the Nifty-gold ratio technique is useful when fundamentals are unclear. The Nifty-gold ratio should not be used as a thumb rule.
“From the fundamental perspective, gold prices crashed from around ₹1,55,000 per 10 gm to around ₹1,47,000 per 10 gm after the sudden rise in the oil and US dollar rates. However, we saw the oil and US dollar rates retracing once there were efforts from the US President to open the Strait of Hormuz,” said Amit Goel of PACE 360.
Why will stocks remain under pressure?
Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said that gold prices are expected to gain faster than equities in the short to medium term, as the impact of the US-Iran war is expected to persist for a longer period, even after the war ends. Supply of oil may remain affected, as oil-producing countries will face challenges in rebuilding oil infrastructure. So, uncertainty around the global economy is expected to last even after the end of the US-Iran war.
“The market is expecting a series of weak quarterly earnings seasons after the US-Iran war, as this geopolitical tension has renewed fear of inflation and economic slowdown. So, equities are expected to remain under pressure,” said Anuj Gupta.
Is it the right time to buy gold?
On whether one should buy gold despite the Nifty-gold ratio being at 1.60, both experts said that buying gold in the current market scenario is advisable as oil and US dollar rates are expected to fall further, while the tension caused by the US-Iran war is expected to soften.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.